TSLA Surges After Landmark Q3 Results—Will Tesla’s Stock Split Propel Shares Even Higher?

Meta description: Tesla stock (TSLA) surged to new 2025 highs after breaking a key technical resistance level, buoyed by hopes for lower interest rates and renewed bullish analyst calls. Here’s what’s driving the rally and what investors should watch next. Lead paragraph Tesla shares ripped higher for a second straight session on Thursday, closing up 6 % at $368.99 and extending this month’s advance to nearly 12 %. The move pushed TSLA decisively above the long-watched $367.71 consolidation ceiling—its first meaningful breakout since April—setting the stage for potentially larger gains into the fourth quarter. Why the stock is running • Rate-cut optimism. The latest CPI print came in softer than expected, reviving bets that the Federal Reserve could trim rates before year-end. Lower borrowing costs would ease financing for EV purchases and support Tesla’s margin recovery. • Technical tailwind. Chart watchers note that Thursday’s breakout triggered fresh algorithmic buy signals; volume spiked 40 % above the 20-day average as TSLA sliced through its 200-day moving average for the first time since June. • Analyst upgrades. Fairlead Strategies lifted its near-term price target to $410, arguing that momentum indicators “are nowhere near overbought”. Separately, 24/7 Wall St. raised its year-end forecast to $351.73, calling the recent dip a “classic bear-trap.” Counter-currents to monitor • Market-share erosion. Despite the stock’s pop, Tesla’s U.S. share of EV sales slipped to 50.7 % in August, the lowest level since 2017 as rivals such as Ford, Hyundai, and Rivian roll out competitively priced models. • Cybertruck launch timetable. CEO Elon Musk has promised first customer deliveries “by Halloween,” but supply-chain insiders say volume production may not ramp until early 2026, which could pressure near-term revenue forecasts. • European demand softness. Preliminary registrations show Tesla deliveries in Germany slipped 9 % year over year in August, underscoring the impact of shrinking local subsidies. What comes next Short-term traders are eyeing the $385 resistance from March’s failed breakout. A decisive close above that line would open a path toward $410, matching Fairlead’s projection. On the downside, bulls want to see the previous ceiling at $367 turn into support; a break back below that level could yank the stock toward its 50-day average near $340. Key catalysts over the next 30 days • September 25: Planned Investor Day webcast focused on Full-Self Driving v12. • Early October: Q3 delivery report—street consensus stands at 468,000 units, down slightly year on year. • October 17: Third-quarter earnings call; analysts expect EPS of $1.23, a 9 % sequential rebound. Bottom line Thursday’s high-volume breakout places Tesla back in leadership territory just as optimism around monetary policy and new product cycles builds. Yet with competitive pressure intensifying and production milestones looming, investors should pair technical enthusiasm with a close watch on real-world execution.