XRP Price Soars Past $2—Is Ripple’s 2026 Breakout Finally Here?

XRP rallied past the psychologically important $2.12 level on 5 January, confirming a breakout that traders had been eyeing since mid-December. The move comes as exchange-held XRP falls to multi-year lows, a dynamic that is tightening circulating supply and amplifying every uptick in demand. Institutional appetite is accelerating the squeeze. U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs—launched only 50 days ago—have already amassed $1.3 billion in assets after posting 43 straight sessions of net inflows, with no recorded outflow days to date. December alone saw $483 million in fresh capital, eclipsing the month’s combined outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum funds. ETF issuers such as Grayscale, Bitwise and Franklin Templeton are funnelling pension-fund and endowment money into custodial wallets, removing roughly 746 million XRP—about 1.1 % of supply—from the open market. On-chain data tell a similar story. XRP Ledger throughput is pushing back toward one million transactions per day, signalling that rising price action is being met with genuine network usage rather than pure speculation. Meanwhile, total exchange balances have slipped below 2.6 billion XRP, a 45 % drop year-over-year. Historically, such draw-downs precede sharper rallies because thinner order books struggle to absorb large buy orders without slippage. Technical structure adds fuel to the bullish narrative. After clearing resistance at $2.10–$2.12 on 47 % above-average volume, price is consolidating in a tight $2.128–$2.152 band. Holding that zone turns the former ceiling into a floor and sets sights on the next supply pocket at $2.15–$2.16; a decisive break there opens the path to $2.20 and potentially $2.28, the July 2025 pivot. Failure to defend $2.128, however, risks a slide back to the $2.06 range midpoint. Macro catalysts loom large for 2026. Analysts are watching for a prospective BlackRock filing that could expand the ETF roster, the first commercial corridors for Ripple’s U.S.-regulated RLUSD stablecoin, and any Federal Reserve policy pivot that lowers the cost of risk. If ETF inflows maintain even half of December’s pace, custodians could lock away another 2.9 billion XRP—roughly 4.4 % of supply—over the next 12 months, a structural shift that many chartists believe could propel price toward $4.00 by year-end. Still, headwinds remain. A hawkish Fed, renewed SEC litigation or stalled RLUSD adoption could cool demand and unwind recent gains. Traders are therefore treating $1.85 as the line in the sand; sustained closes below that level would invalidate the breakout and return the chart to a broad $1.50–$2.00 range. For now, the order-book math favors the bulls: shrinking float, steady institutional absorption and improving on-chain engagement are converging just as technical resistance gives way. With liquidity this thin, each additional dollar of ETF inflow carries outsized price impact, making XRP one of the most leveraged bets on a broader crypto risk-on cycle heading into Q1 2026.