Trump to Reclassify Weed? Impact on 2025 Election & Cannabis Stocks

President Donald Trump is poised to sign an executive order as early as Thursday that would reclassify marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III controlled substance, a seismic pivot in federal drug policy that could redefine everything from medical research to Wall Street’s view of the cannabis sector. If enacted, the move would acknowledge “moderate to low potential for dependence,” placing weed in the same legal tier as products such as Tylenol with codeine and anabolic steroids. While recreational use would remain illegal at the federal level, Schedule III status would: • unlock federal and private-sector funding for clinical trials; • let state-licensed dispensaries deduct ordinary business expenses that are currently disallowed under IRS rule 280E; • ease banking, insurance and investment restrictions that have stunted multi-state operators. Cannabis stocks surged on anticipation of the order—Tilray, Canopy Growth and Curaleaf each spiked more than 5 percent in pre-market trading as investors priced in lower tax burdens and cheaper capital. Political reaction has split largely along ideological lines. Twenty-two Senate Republicans urged the White House to keep marijuana in Schedule I, warning that easing restrictions could “encourage impaired driving and workplace absenteeism.” Reform advocates, meanwhile, called the order a “scientific correction” that aligns Washington with 24 states where adult-use cannabis is already legal. The Department of Justice and Drug Enforcement Administration must still promulgate formal rules and open a public-comment period, a process that could extend well into the 2026 campaign season. But by pre-emptively acting through executive order, Trump signals that reshaping federal cannabis law is now a front-burner issue—one potentially capable of energizing younger and libertarian-leaning voters ahead of next year’s election. Industry analysts say the bigger prize will be federal legalization or interstate-commerce protections, yet they agree the immediate shift to Schedule III would cut costs, boost research and improve patient access—momentum many believe is irreversible no matter which party controls Congress in 2027.