Trump Warns Iran Over Strait of Hormuz, Stoking Tension and Sending Oil Prices Higher

The Strait of Hormuz crisis intensified overnight as former U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled “Project Freedom,” a U.S.-led effort to “guide” nearly 2,000 commercial ships and 20,000 sailors trapped by Iran’s month-long blockade of the world’s most strategic oil chokepoint. Trump, speaking from the White House, said American guided-missile destroyers, drones and more than 100 aircraft are already patrolling the narrow waterway. U.S. Central Command later confirmed that two U.S.-flagged cargo vessels had made a test transit under air cover, although Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) insists no vessel crossed without Iranian approval. Within hours, Iran fired cruise missiles and drones at what it called “enemy destroyers,” while U.S. attack helicopters reportedly sank six IRGC fast boats menacing civilian tankers. Iran’s foreign ministry warned that “the real battle for Hormuz has not even begun,” calling Project Freedom an act of “piracy” that risks a wider regional war. Live footage from the gulf showed tracer fire lighting up the night sky as insurance premiums for Gulf transits quadrupled and Brent crude briefly spiked above $120 a barrel, its highest level since 2023. Analysts say any sustained shooting war could choke off roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied-natural-gas flows, threatening fragile post-pandemic supply chains. Shipping giants Maersk and MSC confirmed they have halted new bookings through Hormuz, rerouting via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope at a cost of up to $1 million in extra fuel per voyage. Asian refineries in Japan and South Korea have begun emergency drawdowns of strategic reserves, while the International Maritime Organization is pressing for a humanitarian evacuation corridor. On Capitol Hill, Republicans largely backed Trump’s show of force, but several Democrats warned that a unilateral escort mission lacks congressional authorization. Beijing and Brussels urged restraint, with the EU proposing a multinational naval task force modeled on the 2019 Operation Sentinel. Security experts say the immediate question is whether insurers and captains trust U.S. air cover enough to risk the 33-kilometre-wide passage. “If Project Freedom doesn’t move at least 50 ships in the next 72 hours, the blockade narrative hardens and oil prices will soar,” warns Chatham House fellow Nitya Labh. As dawn breaks over the Gulf, radar trackers show dozens of tankers still anchored east of the strait, their AIS transponders blinking in nervous unison. Whether Trump’s gambit restores navigation or triggers the next phase of U.S.–Iran confrontation may be decided in the narrow waters off Bandar Abbas before the week is out.