Trump Approval Rating Plummets to Record Low—What the Latest Polls Signal for the 2025 Election

U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating is showing mixed signals as the holiday season begins, reflecting Americans’ diverging views on his economic agenda and overall job performance. A new Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Dec. 3-9 finds 41 % of adults approve of the president, a three-point rebound from late November that ends a two-month slide. The bump is powered by a 10-point surge among Republicans and a small uptick with Hispanic voters after the White House pivoted to cost-of-living issues, including tariff rollbacks on food imports and a new supply-chain task force. Yet the broader polling picture remains clouded. Separate Gallup tracking released last week shows Trump at 36 %, his lowest mark of the second term and only one point above his all-time low reached in 2017. Gallup notes that just 3 % of Democrats approve of the president, while support among independents has slipped to 29 %, underscoring the partisan polarization that has defined his presidency. Key takeaways from the latest polls 1. Economy drives perception: In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, approval of Trump’s handling of the cost of living climbed to 31 % from 26 %. While still weak, the five-point gain suggests the president’s recent messaging on food prices and tariffs is resonating with parts of his base. 2. Republican consolidation: Overall job approval among GOP identifiers rose to 85 % from 82 %, signaling that party loyalists are rallying after disappointing November state-level election results. 3. Demographic shifts: Trump’s rating with Hispanic adults in the Ipsos sample nudged up to 34 %, continuing a gradual recovery from post-election lows. Gallup, however, shows steady erosion among suburban women and younger independents, warning of volatility ahead of the 2026 midterms. 4. Historical context: Trump began his second term in January 2025 with a 47 % approval average, buoyed by a post-inaugural optimism spike. The current blended average from major pollsters now sits around the low 40s, roughly where Barack Obama stood at the same point of his second term but below George W. Bush’s 51 % in December 2005. Why the numbers matter Presidential approval is a leading indicator for congressional outcomes. In 2018 and 2022, the incumbent party lost House seats when approval ratings hovered below 45 %. With every House seat and a third of the Senate on the ballot next November, small shifts among independents or non-white voters could decide control of Congress. What to watch next • Pennsylvania speech: Trump travels to Scranton today to outline a “Make Life Affordable” plan that senior aides say will highlight energy costs and housing supply—issues polling shows as top-of-mind for swing-state voters. • December CPI release: Any improvement in headline inflation could reinforce the Ipsos bounce; another hot reading may validate the Gallup downturn. • Gallup vs. Ipsos divergence: Analysts will track whether the Ipsos uptick repeats in other high-quality polls such as YouGov, Quinnipiac and the NBC News survey due out later this month. Bottom line Trump’s approval rating in December 2025 sits at a precarious crossroads: modestly improving in some weekly tracking yet flirting with second-term lows in long-running Gallup data. The next several weeks—marked by economic data, a critical Pennsylvania visit and a barrage of holiday-season advertising—will reveal whether the president can solidify recent gains or whether voter unease over inflation drags his numbers back toward historic lows.