Tropical Storm Jerry Strengthens: Latest Path, Forecast Timing & Preparation Tips

Tropical Storm Jerry, the 10th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, sprang to life Tuesday morning over the warm central Atlantic waters, about 1,100 miles east of the Leeward Islands. According to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. ET advisory, Jerry’s sustained winds strengthened to 45 mph as it moved west-northwest near 17 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend 90 miles from its center, making the system larger than average for its current intensity. Forecast track and intensity • Computer models are in tight agreement that Jerry will continue on a west-northwest course through mid-week, reaching the northeastern Leeward Islands late Thursday or early Friday. Gradual strengthening is likely; the NHC projects Jerry could approach hurricane strength within 48 hours as it traverses 29–30 °C sea-surface temperatures and modest wind shear. • By this weekend, a weakness in the subtropical ridge should bend Jerry northward, steering the storm away from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Long-range guidance then curves the system well east of Florida, but interests along the Southeast coast—from the Carolinas to Virginia—should still monitor for rough surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding, even if the core stays offshore. Potential impacts • Leeward Islands: Tropical-storm watches may be issued as early as Wednesday. Expect heavy squalls, 2–4 inches of rain and dangerous seas late this week. • Bermuda and U.S. East Coast: While direct wind impacts appear unlikely at this time, elevated swells, rip currents and high surf are probable beginning Friday and persisting through the weekend. • Shipping lanes: Mariners along the “main development region” should prepare for gale-force winds and 20-foot seas. Season in context Jerry’s formation continues a recent burst of late-season activity that forecasters warned about in NOAA’s updated “above-normal” outlook. With nearly eight weeks left before the official November 30 end date, the Atlantic basin has now tallied ten named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane. Preparedness tips • Review hurricane plans now; know your evacuation zone. • Stock a three-day supply of water, non-perishable food and medications. • Secure loose outdoor items before outer rainbands arrive. • Monitor official updates from the National Hurricane Center every six hours at hurricanes.gov. Climate signal Warmer-than-average Atlantic waters and a robust African easterly wave train have boosted storm formation this year. Research shows that rising sea-surface temperatures linked to climate change can fuel stronger tropical cyclones, especially later in the season. Bottom line Tropical Storm Jerry poses an immediate threat to the Leeward Islands and a longer-term marine and surf hazard for the western Atlantic. Residents from the Caribbean to the Carolinas should stay alert and check the latest advisories as the storm’s path and strength evolve.