Tropical Storm Alvin 2025 Live Tracker: Path, Cone, and Impact Forecast for Mexico & U.S. West Coast

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking Invest 90-E, a broad low-pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, that is expected to consolidate into Tropical Storm Alvin within the next 24–48 hours, potentially becoming the first named cyclone of the 2025 Northern Hemisphere season. Meteorologists at The Weather Prediction Center estimate the disturbance’s current sustained winds near 35 mph (55 km/h); once they reach 39 mph, the system will officially be classified as a tropical storm and take the name Alvin. Satellite imagery this morning reveals deep convective bursts wrapping steadily around a developing center, an indication that organization is improving despite moderate easterly shear. Why this storm is forming so early Typical first-storm formation in the eastern Pacific occurs around 10 June, so Alvin is running roughly two weeks ahead of climatology. Warm sea-surface temperatures of 29–30 °C and a favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation are providing ample fuel for development. Forecast track and intensity Consensus model guidance keeps Alvin on a west-northwest path away from mainland Mexico for at least the next five days, sparing coastal resorts such as Puerto Vallarta and Cabo San Lucas from a direct hit. The NHC gives the system a 90 % chance of formation and projects peak winds of 50–60 mph by mid-week before cooler waters begin to induce weakening. Potential impacts • Rough seas and hazardous rip currents could reach the south-central Mexican shoreline and the Revillagigedo Islands beginning Wednesday. • Peripheral moisture may enhance daily downpours across Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas, producing localized flash-flood risk in mountainous terrain. • Mariners over the open eastern Pacific should prepare for gale-force gusts and building swells through the end of the week. Context within the 2025 hurricane season Forecasters anticipate an above-average Pacific season this year, influenced by lingering warm ocean anomalies and a neutral-to-La Niña transition that typically suppresses Atlantic activity but boosts Pacific output. Alvin’s early appearance is consistent with those expectations, serving as a reminder that preparedness efforts should already be underway for communities along Mexico’s Pacific coast and shipping interests throughout the basin. Safety and preparedness tips 1. Monitor official updates from the NHC every six hours; overnight changes can be significant when a storm is still organizing. 2. Fishermen and recreational boaters should secure vessels or alter routes to avoid forecast wave heights of 10–15 ft. 3. Residents in flood-prone zones should clear drains, assemble emergency kits and review evacuation plans even if a direct landfall is not expected. What’s next? If Alvin organizes sooner than predicted, rapid intensification cannot be ruled out in the short term, given high ocean heat content south of 15° N. Conversely, increased wind shear late week should hasten transition to a post-tropical low before the system reaches cooler waters near 120° W. Regardless of final strength, Alvin will mark the official start of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season and set the stage for a potentially active year. Stay tuned for continuous coverage, forecast graphics and preparedness resources as the storm evolves.