Texas Severe Weather Forecast: Tornado, Hail & Flood Threat Intensifies Today

North Texas braces for another volatile night of thunderstorms as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) for destructive winds, giant hail and a few strong tornadoes from the Red River southward into the Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) Metroplex and eastward toward Tyler and Waco. A fast-moving upper-level disturbance diving out of the Rockies is expected to ignite supercells by late afternoon, then merge into a potentially long-lived derecho racing across the I-35 corridor after sundown, packing 80- to 100-mph straight-line gusts and hail stones up to five inches in diameter—larger than softballs—according to FOX Weather meteorologists. Key timing • 3 p.m.–7 p.m. CDT: Discrete supercells develop west of Wichita Falls, quickly maturing and tracking ESE toward Denton and Collin counties. • 7 p.m.–midnight: Storms congeal into a bowing squall line capable of producing a derecho from DFW to College Station. • Midnight–4 a.m. Monday: Severe threat shifts into East Texas, Shreveport and the Ark-La-Tex before weakening by dawn. Threat breakdown • Damaging wind: Widespread hurricane-force gusts (74 mph+) with isolated pockets exceeding 90 mph likely. Power outages and tree damage are expected, especially north and east of Dallas. • Large hail: Any supercell ahead of the line could drop baseball- to grapefruit-size hail. Vehicles should be garaged where possible. • Tornadoes: Embedded circulations along the leading edge of the derecho may spin up fast-moving EF-1 to EF-3 tornadoes. Stay weather-aware—even brief nighttime tornadoes can be deadly. • Flash flooding: Repeated storms may dump 2–4 inches of rain in a few hours, overwhelming low-lying roads. Meteorological setup A potent 90-knot mid-level jet streak intersecting a humid 75 °F Gulf air mass is creating extreme wind shear and instability exceeding 4,000 J/kg of CAPE. The clash of a sharpening dryline and a slow-moving cold front provides the lift needed for explosive thunderstorm growth, says Texas Storm Chasers forecasters. Impact zones • Highest risk: Dallas, Fort Worth, Denton, McKinney, Sherman, Gainesville, Paris. • Elevated risk: Waco, Temple-Killeen, Tyler, Longview, College Station, Abilene. • Marginal risk: Austin, Houston suburbs north of I-10, San Angelo, Lufkin. Travel & power disruptions DFW International and Love Field could see ground stops or diversions as storms approach. Major arteries such as I-35E, I-20 and US-75 may become impassable due to downed trees or flooding. ERCOT officials are preparing for widespread electrical outages as wind gusts rival a Category 2 hurricane; residents should charge devices and have flashlights ready. Safety checklist 1. Enable Wireless Emergency Alerts and have multiple ways to receive warnings. 2. Identify a small interior room on the lowest floor—preferably a basement or bathroom—for tornado sheltering. 3. Secure patio furniture, trampolines and umbrellas that could become airborne. 4. Avoid parking under trees or power lines; move vehicles under sturdy cover to protect against large hail. 5. Never drive across water-covered roads—“Turn Around, Don’t Drown.” Looking ahead Behind tonight’s storms, a reinforcing cold front will knock highs back into the upper 80s Monday, but the respite is brief. Another round of severe weather may redevelop midweek as the front stalls along the Gulf Coast and a new impulse ejects across the southern Plains. Check daily updates from the National Weather Service and local media for the latest outlooks. Bottom line A dangerous severe weather outbreak is primed to impact millions across Texas through the overnight hours. Prepare now, stay alert to rapidly changing conditions and heed all warnings to protect life and property.