Texas Senate Race 2026 Shocker: New Polls Show Razor-Thin Margin as Underdog Gains Momentum

Early 2026 polling shows Texas’ high-stakes Senate race tightening on both sides of the aisle, signaling a volatile path to the November 3 election. A new Texas Public Opinion Research survey of likely Democratic voters finds U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico virtually tied at 38 % and 37 % respectively, with 21 % still undecided—confirming the primary is anyone’s game less than three weeks before early voting opens on March 3. Crockett’s edge comes from strong support among Black and middle-aged voters, while Talarico dominates with white, Latino and college-educated Texans. Both campaign teams are pouring resources into South Texas and the I-35 corridor, betting that robust Latino turnout will decide the nomination. Fund-raising totals are nearly even: Crockett has banked $5.6 million cash on hand versus Talarico’s $5 million, ensuring an ad-war sprint across Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin. Republicans, meanwhile, face a three-way slugfest. Four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is trying to fend off hard-right challengers Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. Recent aggregate polling shows Paxton narrowly leading Cornyn, with Hunt siphoning enough support to all but guarantee a May 26 runoff if no one clears 50 % on March 3. Cornyn’s $10 million war chest dwarfs his rivals’, yet Paxton’s grassroots base and Hunt’s fresh-face appeal have fractured the GOP electorate. The general-election landscape remains lean-Republican, but matchup surveys suggest Democrats could make it competitive if Paxton emerges—he runs several points behind both Crockett and Talarico in head-to-head trials, while Cornyn maintains a slim single-digit advantage. National groups are already investing: EMILY’s List has endorsed Crockett, and the Senate Leadership Fund is blanketing Texas media with pro-Cornyn spots emphasizing border security and energy independence. Key dates: • Feb 12 – mail-ballot deadline to register for primaries • Feb 19 – Feb 29 – in-person early voting • Mar 3 – primary election day; May 26 runoff if needed • Nov 3 – general election Top issues dominating stump speeches include property-tax relief, expansion of Medicaid, and the state’s role in tightening border enforcement. Digital chatter around “Texas Senate race 2026” has spiked 180 % month-over-month as campaigns leverage TikTok town halls and targeted Spanish-language Facebook ads to court younger voters. With both parties divided and tens of millions in spending on deck, the 2026 Texas Senate race is set to be the most expensive—and unpredictable—statewide contest in a generation.