New Texas Senate Poll Shocker: James Talarico Now Leads Ken Paxton in 2026 Race

A fresh University of Texas Politics Project survey has turned the Texas Senate race into must-watch political theater: Attorney General Ken Paxton clings to a razor-thin 43 %-to-42 % edge over Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, with 10 % of voters still uncommitted and a ±3.5-point margin of error—statistically a dead heat. Conducted June 5-12 among 1,200 registered voters, the poll confirms that Republicans are rapidly re-uniting after a bruising GOP primary: 84 % of self-identified Republicans now back Paxton, up 21 points since April. Paxton’s overall support has jumped nine points in that span, erasing the eight-point deficit he faced just two months ago. Talarico, meanwhile, is holding Democrats (88 %) and dominating among independents, 40 %-to-12 %. Those swing voters—one-third of whom remain undecided—are likely to decide whether historically red Texas sends its first Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades. Key takeaways that could shape the stretch run: • Gender gap: Paxton leads men by nine points, but Talarico leads women by six—mirroring national suburban trends. • Education & age: Voters under 65 and those with college degrees favor Talarico, while Paxton’s strength lies with non-college and older Texans. • Hispanic vote: Talarico currently enjoys a 14-point advantage, an essential cushion if Black support (two-thirds) doesn’t reach traditional Democratic levels. Strategically, Paxton is leaning on a unified conservative base, touting lawsuit victories against the Biden administration and pledging to “keep Texas red.” Talarico is courting Sen. John Cornyn’s moderate primary voters and framing Paxton’s legal controversies as a “corruption tax” on Texas families. Digital momentum mirrors the polling surge: searches for “Ken Paxton polls” and “James Talarico poll numbers” have spiked statewide since the survey dropped, signaling that voter engagement is intensifying ahead of fall debates and October’s start of early voting. Down-ballot data underscores how fluid the landscape remains. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick hold mid-single-digit leads, but none match Paxton’s nail-biter margin, suggesting crossover ticket-splitting could be decisive. With independents in play, demographic divides hardening, and 10 % of the electorate still shopping, the next poll could flip the headline. For now, Texas appears poised for its tightest Senate finish since 2018—and every fresh data point will dominate the search results voters are already scouring.