Tesla Stock Surges on Record Deliveries: What’s Driving the Rally and Where It Could Go Next

Tesla (TSLA) shares slid more than 5 % intraday Thursday, punctuating a volatile week defined by politics, product speculation and fresh delivery data. The stock fell to the low-$310s before paring some losses, underperforming the S&P 500 as traders digested a public back-and-forth between CEO Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump over the administration’s latest spending bill, which Trump derided while accusing Musk of having “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” Why TSLA Is Under Pressure • Soft May sales in Europe: German registrations fell 36 % year over year, renewing demand worries in Tesla’s second-largest market. • Political overhang: Musk’s increasing partisan commentary risks alienating some consumers, analysts at Bernstein warned, linking weaker unit growth to brand perception. • Upcoming robotaxi reveal: Bulls argue that the planned June 12 “robotaxi day” could restore momentum if Tesla demonstrates a viable autonomous ride-hailing product, but skeptics fear another hype cycle with limited near-term revenue impact. Key Technical Levels TSLA has surrendered the 50-day moving average near $328 and is testing February support around $305. A decisive break could open a path toward the psychological $300 level, while resistance looms at $330. What Wall Street Is Saying • Wedbush maintained an “Outperform” and $500 price target, calling the sell-off “noise” ahead of autonomy catalysts. • Morgan Stanley trimmed its 2025 EPS estimate by 8 %, citing slower EV adoption but kept an “Overweight” rating, highlighting Tesla’s AI training cluster as a hidden asset. • At the other extreme, bears at Gordon Haskett reiterated “Underperform,” arguing that full self-driving revenue remains “largely theoretical.” Catalysts to Watch in June 1. Robotaxi Day (Jun 12) – any concrete timeline for commercial launch could re-rate Tesla as an AI platform rather than a pure-play automaker. 2. Q2 production/ delivery report (early July) – consensus expects ~435 k units; a miss would reinforce concerns about demand elasticity. 3. Dojo supercomputer ramp – management has hinted at a late-June update on training capacity and potential external customers. Trading Strategy Short-term traders eyeing the 200-day moving average at $257 may consider protective puts or stop-loss orders below $300. Long-term investors bullish on Tesla’s AI optionality may view current weakness as an accumulation window, but position sizing is critical given heightened volatility. Bottom Line Tesla stock is caught between cyclical EV headwinds and the promise of transformational tech catalysts. Whether the June robotaxi showcase delivers tangible proof points could determine if TSLA’s recent drop proves a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper drawdown.