Tesla Stock Rockets After Blockbuster Delivery Report—Is This the Next $1 Trillion Breakout?

Shares of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) blasted through the $450 mark on Thursday, lifting the electric-vehicle pioneer to a record-shattering $1.5 trillion market capitalization as Wall Street digests fresh delivery data and braces for third-quarter earnings later this month. Record deliveries spark a new leg higher Tesla reported it built 447,450 vehicles and handed over 497,099 units in Q3 2025—both all-time highs and well ahead of most analyst models that hovered around 470,000 deliveries. The beat caps a 40 % surge in the share price over the past three months and turns the stock positive for the year after a rocky first quarter. At today’s intraday high of $459, TSLA now trades near 180 × forward earnings, underscoring how much growth is already priced in. Why investors are still buying • Momentum heading into earnings: Tesla will release Q3 financial results on Oct. 22, when margins, AI software revenue and energy-storage sales will come under the microscope. A conference-call update on Full Self-Driving (FSD) v14 and the Optimus robot timeline could provide the next catalyst. • AI and robotaxi optionality: Management has tied future compensation to aggressive milestones that envision a potential $8.5 trillion valuation by 2035, effectively positioning Tesla as an AI platform rather than a pure-play automaker. • Energy-storage boom: A record 12.5 GWh of Megapack deployments last quarter hints at a second profit engine that is less cyclical than vehicle sales. Near-term speed bumps • Higher U.S. lease payments: With the $7,500 federal EV lease credit gone, monthly costs for Model 3 and Model Y contracts rose by $50-$80. That could dent demand among cost-sensitive first-time EV buyers even as it protects gross margin. • Intensifying competition: Chinese rivals such as BYD and Zeekr continue to undercut prices in Europe and Asia, pressuring Tesla’s market share and forcing constant software-feature upgrades to defend its premium positioning. • Valuation stretch: At 12 × sales, Tesla’s multiple is richer than that of most megacap tech names, leaving little room for delivery disappointments or margin compression. Key metrics investors will watch on Oct. 22 1. Automotive gross margin ex-credits—expected to rebound toward 21 % after aggressive price cuts earlier in the year. 2. Regulatory-credit revenue—$2.76 billion in 2024; any slowdown could trim full-year EPS guidance. 3. Energy-generation and storage revenue trajectory—now the fastest-growing line item. 4. FSD deferred-revenue recognition—an early gauge of software profitability. Trading outlook Technically, TSLA is breaking out of a seven-month cup-and-handle pattern with next resistance at the split-adjusted all-time high near $500. Failure to hold the $430 breakout zone could trigger profit-taking toward the 50-day moving average around $402. Bottom line Tesla’s record Q3 deliveries have reignited the bull case just as macro headwinds ease and AI optionality comes into sharper focus. Yet with lofty expectations baked in, Oct. 22 could decide whether TSLA races toward fresh highs—or stalls at peak valuation.