Stock Market Today: Dow Rallies After Surprise CPI Drop—Is the 2025 Bull Run Back?

Wall Street wobbled on Friday as investors digested fresh geopolitical tension and a mixed batch of economic data, leaving the major U.S. equity benchmarks on pace for another volatile session. Morning action saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge more than 500 points before trimming losses, weighed down by heavy selling in industrial bellwethers after former President Trump threatened “massive” new tariffs on Chinese imports if elected in 2026. The S&P 500 slipped as much as 0.8 percent while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell over 1 percent on renewed profit-taking in mega-cap growth names. Key catalysts driving today’s stock market • China tariff rhetoric: Remarks out of a morning campaign event fanned fears of an escalation in U.S.–China trade frictions that could squeeze multinational earnings. • Bond-yield bounce: The 10-year Treasury yield briefly reclaimed the 4.80 percent level, reviving worries that higher-for-longer rates will pressure equity valuations. • Consumer sentiment: University of Michigan’s preliminary October sentiment index ticked up to 71.6, surprising to the upside but failing to offset tariff-related anxiety. • Energy prices: WTI crude hovered near $86 a barrel, keeping inflation vigilance elevated even as natural-gas prices retreated. Sector snapshot Defensive pockets outperformed, with utilities edging higher and health-care stocks largely flat. Conversely, semiconductor shares and cloud-software names were hit hard as traders rotated out of higher-beta technology plays. Energy majors Chevron and Exxon Mobil slipped alongside crude, while airline stocks caught a bid after jet-fuel prices pulled back. Market breadth on the NYSE favored decliners by roughly 3-to-1, and over 150 issues notched new 52-week lows. What strategists are watching • Next week’s CPI report: A hotter-than-expected reading could cement expectations for another Federal Reserve hike before year-end. • Earnings season kickoff: Money-center banks including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup report before Friday’s open; guidance on consumer credit quality will be a market sentiment bellwether. • Fed speak: Governor Lisa Cook headlines a slate of policymakers scheduled to discuss the economic outlook; any pushback against rate-cut hopes could spark further equity turbulence. Technical picture From a chart perspective, the S&P 500 is testing its 50-day moving average near 4,495. A decisive break below could open the door to the 100-day trendline around 4,425. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite sits just above psychological support at 14,500, a level bulls are eager to defend after two straight down weeks. How to position now For short-term traders: • Tighten stops on momentum winners; volatility spikes around tariff headlines can trigger abrupt reversals. • Consider hedging via put spreads on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) or by adding exposure to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). For long-term investors: • Dollar-cost average into high-quality names with durable cash flows. • Diversify internationally; several strategists note that valuations in developed Europe and select emerging markets trade at a notable discount to the U.S. benchmark. Bottom line “Stock market today” continues to trend as investors grapple with a wall of worry: sticky inflation, rising yields, and geopolitical uncertainty. While intraday swings may persist, the broader bull narrative hinges on resilient corporate earnings and a potential downshift in Fed tightening once price pressures convincingly recede. Stay nimble, keep an eye on next week’s CPI and bank earnings for the market’s next directional cue, and remember that volatility often breeds opportunity for disciplined, long-horizon portfolios.