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South Korean President Lee Jae-myung touches down in Washington today for his first face-to-face summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, a meeting that could reset the economic and security calculus on the Korean Peninsula and across the Indo-Pacific. Why the Lee-Trump Summit Matters Lee enters the White House amid soaring approval ratings at home, but the stakes abroad are higher: U.S. troop levels in South Korea, joint military exercises and the future of the 2022 bilateral trade deal are all up for discussion. Beijing’s growing regional clout—and Washington’s desire to counter it—adds extra urgency to the talks. Trade Tensions and Tariff Talk U.S. officials have signaled they want deeper market access for American autos and farm exports, while Seoul hopes to lock in tariff exemptions for its booming electric-vehicle sector. Lee’s aides say any changes must be “mutually beneficial” and not derail South Korea’s fragile post-pandemic recovery, now expanding at 3.1 percent year-on-year. Analysts warn that even a hint of new tariffs could rattle global supply chains already stretched by semiconductor shortages. Security Stakes in Northeast Asia On defense, Trump is expected to press Seoul to boost its annual host-nation support payments for the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed south of the DMZ. Lee will likely counter with a proposal for a broader regional security framework that also ropes in Japan and Australia, hoping to deter North Korea’s recent flurry of short-range missile launches without inflaming nationalist sentiment at home. China in the Room Though not on the official agenda, China’s economic leverage looms large. South Korean exports to China still top $150 billion annually, and Beijing’s past boycotts over missile defense deployments remain fresh in corporate memory. Lee must therefore balance tighter security cooperation with Washington against the risk of another trade backlash from his biggest customer. What to Watch Next • Joint Statement: Look for wording on “free and open Indo-Pacific,” a phrase that signals alignment with U.S. containment strategy toward China. • Defense Cost-Sharing: An increase below 10 percent would be framed as a win for Seoul; anything higher could spark domestic pushback. • Supply-Chain Pledges: Expect language on rare-earth minerals and next-generation chips, areas where the two allies increasingly converge. Bottom Line The Lee-Trump summit arrives at a hinge moment for South Korea. A breakthrough on trade and security would cement Lee’s image as a global deal-maker and reinforce the U.S.–ROK alliance. A breakdown, however, could unsettle markets and embolden North Korea. Either way, decisions made in Washington this week will reverberate from Seoul’s industrial heartland to boardrooms in Silicon Valley—and shape the geopolitical chessboard in Asia for years to come.

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