South Carolina Republican Special Election LIVE: Real-Time Results, Possible Upset & What It Means for the GOP

South Carolina Republicans are barreling toward a high-stakes special primary on August 11 2026 that will decide the party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate seat left vacant after Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sudden death last month. The contest has drawn a crowded field, courtroom drama and fresh polling that hints a runoff is likely. Why the special election matters • Historic vacancy: Graham’s passing triggered South Carolina’s first Senate special election since 2014. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed the late senator’s sister, Sen. Darline Graham, as interim senator, but voters will choose who serves the full six-year term beginning January 2027. • Republican stronghold at risk? Only two people have won this seat since 1956, both Republicans, yet Democrats have already united behind pediatrician Annie Andrews for November, making GOP unity critical. Who’s leading the pack A new Emerson College/Nexstar poll shows Rep. Ralph Norman at 22 percent, interim Sen. Darline Graham at 19 percent and Rep. Russell Fry at 12 percent, with 25 percent of voters still undecided—signaling a probable August 25 runoff if no one tops 50 percent. Complete (and contested) candidate slate As of certification, the Republican ballot is expected to list: 1. Ralph Norman – U.S. Representative 2. Darline Graham – Appointed senator 3. Russell Fry – U.S. Representative 4. Mark Sanford – Former governor & congressman 5. Mark Lynch – Businessman 6. Mark McBride – Myrtle Beach councilman 7. Duke Buckner – Attorney 8. Samuel Shepard – Retired Air Force officer 9. Glenda Gail Parker – Activist Three hopefuls—farmer Danny Ford II, influencer Darius Mitchell and businessman Clark Nielson—were decertified by the SCGOP. Ford has won a temporary court order restoring his spot, with a full hearing set for August 3, injecting uncertainty just days before ballots are printed. Key issues animating primary voters • Trump factor: 53 percent of Republicans say the former president’s endorsement of Graham does not influence their choice, while 29 percent say it makes them more likely to back her. • Debates: Nearly nine in ten likely voters insist candidates participate in at least one debate before election day, underscoring appetite for direct contrasts. • Electability: With control of the Senate in play nationally, many GOP activists argue that nominating a proven fundraiser with statewide name ID is essential to hold the seat. How and when to vote • Early voting: August 5-7, 8:30 a.m.–5 p.m. at county early-voting centers. • Election day: Tuesday, August 11; polls open 7 a.m.–7 p.m. • Runoff (if needed): Tuesday, August 25. • Who can vote: Any registered voter who participated in the June Republican primary—or sat out both June primaries—may cast a ballot. June Democratic primary voters are ineligible. What’s next Legal rulings on ballot access, a scheduled August 3 statewide debate, and late endorsements will shape the final sprint. With undecided Republicans outnumbering the top contender’s support, grassroots turnout and earned media could tip the balance in South Carolina’s closely watched special Republican primary.