Sofia Kenin’s Stunning Comeback: Inside the Champion’s Latest Upset and What’s Next

Sofia Kenin strides back onto Arthur Ashe Stadium this week looking to recreate the magic that carried her to the 2020 Australian Open crown and a career-high No.4 ranking. The 26-year-old American opens her 2025 US Open campaign tonight against rising compatriot Ashlyn Krueger in a first-round showdown that could set the tone for the fortnight. Recent form Kenin’s 2025 season has been a study in streaks. She reached a clay-court final in Charleston and made the last eight in Dubai, but her North-American hard-court swing stalled with second-round exits in Montreal and Cincinnati. In each loss she struggled with first-serve accuracy, landing just 58 % of first deliveries against Victoria Mboko in Canada and 55 % versus Varvara Gracheva in Ohio. Kenin admitted in Cincinnati that “the timing is there in practice—I just need to trust it under the lights.” Krueger, meanwhile, has quietly pieced together the best year of her young career. The 21-year-old powered to a runner-up finish in Abu Dhabi and logged a round-of-16 run in Miami before pushing into the Cincinnati third round last week. Armed with a 120 mph serve that produced 183 aces on hard courts this season, she owns six top-40 wins since January and is up to a career-high No.38. Head-to-head The pair have met only once on tour. Kenin survived 7-6, 6-3 in Doha this spring, exploiting Krueger’s second-serve returns with early strike backhands that kept rallies short. That experience—and Kenin’s 14–7 lifetime record in US Open night matches—gives the elder American a slim statistical edge. Tactical breakdown • Baseline patterns: Kenin thrives on taking the ball early, redirecting pace down the line, and finishing with her favored inside-out forehand. Krueger will attempt to push the contact point back with heavy topspin forehands that jump above Kenin’s hitting zone. • Serve pressure: Kenin has won only 49 % of second-serve points across her last five matches; Krueger attacks second serves with a flat, two-handed return that produced 28 winners in Cincinnati. Expect Kenin to add body serves and slice out-wide deliveries to prevent predictable targets. • Movement: Night conditions in New York slow the court fractionally. That helps Kenin, who slides into corners naturally and changes direction faster than Krueger, whose 6'1" frame can be exposed by drop shots and short-angle forehands. What a win would mean A first-round victory would mark Kenin’s first three-match winning streak since April and keep alive her push for a late-season return to the Top 20. For Krueger, upsetting a former major champion on Ashe would serve as her formal arrival on the Grand-Slam stage and guarantee a new career-high ranking next Monday. Quotes to watch • Kenin after practice on Sunday: “I love the energy here. New York crowds expect a show, and that fires me up.” • Krueger on facing Kenin: “Her court sense is elite, but the pressure is on her. I’m here to swing free.” Projected odds (BetMGM) Moneyline: Kenin –150, Krueger +118 Over/Under 21.5 games: Over –135 Prediction If Kenin lands over 60 % first serves and keeps unforced errors under 25, she should navigate the opener in straight sets. Anything less and Krueger’s serve-plus-one firepower could tilt the night. Slight lean to the underdog in three tight sets. Key takeaways for fans and searchers • Match time: Not before 8 p.m. ET, Tuesday, 26 August • Court: Arthur Ashe Stadium • TV/Streaming: ESPN, ESPN+, Sky Sports (UK) • Why it matters: Potential springboard for Kenin’s comeback; breakthrough stage for Krueger Keep this page bookmarked for live score updates, post-match quotes, and day-three order-of-play analysis as Sofia Kenin attempts to launch another deep US Open run.