Shrimp Shortage 2025: Prices Surge Worldwide—Here’s Why

Rising Demand Meets Rough Waters for Shrimp Supply Tariffs Loom Over Q4 Seafood Season The United States is set to impose new import duties of 10 %–25 % on most farm-raised shrimp beginning 1 August 2025, a move aimed at leveling the playing field for domestic fleets but one that threatens to drive wholesale prices even higher. Analysts at the Global Shrimp Forum warn that the levies could trim China’s export volumes by 4 % and spark retail price spikes just as holiday demand accelerates. Prices Already at Multi-Year Highs Even before the tariff clock starts, U.S. wholesale quotations for popular 21/25-count frozen white shrimp have surged 17 % year-over-year, reaching their highest level since 2021. Supermarkets are passing along the cost: Nielsen data show frozen shrimp retail prices up 4.7 % in July compared with a month earlier, outpacing salmon and other shellfish. Why Shrimp Still Sells • Shrimp remains America’s most-consumed seafood, commanding roughly 25 % of total seafood servings. • Versatility—shrimp fits weeknight stir-fries, tailgate tacos and upscale holiday platters. • Nutritional halo—low fat, high protein and a growing roster of “carbon-neutral” certification labels. Supply-Side Pressures Indian farms, once supplying over a third of U.S. imports, are battling disease outbreaks and higher feed costs. Ecuadorian producers, meanwhile, face El Niño-driven water-temperature swings that curb yields. With fewer containers arriving, U.S. cold-storage inventories have fallen to an estimated seven-week supply, well below the 12-week comfort zone distributors enjoyed in 2023. Sustainability & “Manifest Transparency” Domestic harvesters argue that cheaper imports often skirt labor and environmental rules. That sentiment has fueled bipartisan support for the proposed “Seafood Import Monitoring and Manifest Transparency Act,” which would require carriers to disclose a shipment’s origin earlier in the customs process and stiffen penalties for mislabeling. Retailers are watching closely, as traceability is now a top purchase driver for Gen Z consumers. What to Expect in the Holiday Quarter 1. Spot shortages of large tail-on shrimp (16/20 count) could appear by Thanksgiving. 2. Food-service chains may downsize portion sizes or spotlight alternative species like squid. 3. Promotions will pivot to value packs of smaller 41/50-count shrimp to keep check averages low. 4. E-commerce grocers are poised to gain market share as shoppers comparison-shop for frozen bags. Tips for Buyers • Stock up early: distributors recommend securing November-December needs before mid-October. • Verify certifications: look for ASC or Best Aquaculture Practices labels to avoid potential recalls. • Explore U.S. Gulf options: domestic wild shrimp carry no tariff risk and deliver a premium flavor profile, though at a higher price point. Bottom Line Shrimp demand shows no sign of ebbing, but geopolitical and environmental headwinds are tightening the supply tap. Retailers and consumers who plan ahead, diversify sources and demand transparency will navigate the 2025 crunch most successfully.