Inside Serbia’s 2025 Uprising: How Nationwide Protests Could Redefine the Balkans

Serbia is experiencing one of its most turbulent weeks in years, as mass anti-government demonstrations, a forceful police crackdown, fresh U.S. trade tariffs and extreme summer weather converge to test the country’s political and economic stability. Huge crowds in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Niš have been marching nightly since late June, demanding the resignation of President Aleksandar Vučić, snap parliamentary elections and an independent investigation into alleged corruption. The protest movement—galvanised by student groups, opposition parties and civil-society organisations—claims the ruling Serbian Progressive Party has eroded media freedom and democratic checks during its 12-year grip on power. Why are Serbians protesting? • Demonstrators say recent changes to election rules unfairly favour the government and silence opposition voices. • They also accuse authorities of stalling Serbia’s EU-accession talks by back-tracking on judicial reforms and aligning too closely with Russia. • Anger intensified after the June arrest of several environmental activists, followed by the dissolution of a parliamentary committee probing state-linked corruption. How has the government responded? On 3 July police detained 79 people after violent scuffles outside parliament, where officers used tear gas and batons to disperse crowds. Interior Minister Bratislav Gašić defended the operation as “necessary to protect public order,” but rights watchdogs have documented what they call excessive force. Amnesty International urged Belgrade to “end unlawful use of force and launch prompt, impartial investigations”. International reaction and new U.S. tariffs The unrest coincides with Washington’s surprise decision to impose a 35 percent tariff on Serbian steel, machinery and defence-industry exports, part of a broader Balkan trade package also targeting Bosnia. Analysts warn the move could shave up to 0.7 percentage points off Serbia’s GDP growth this year and fuel discontent among workers already hit by inflation. EU diplomats are urging restraint on both sides and signalling that progress on accession talks will hinge on Belgrade’s respect for fundamental rights. Brussels has offered to mediate, but opposition leaders insist substantive negotiations can start only after detainees are released. Extreme weather adds pressure Compounding the political chaos, record-breaking heat across the Balkans triggered wildfires and violent storms that left portions of Serbia’s Vojvodina province without power and damaged key corn and wheat crops, prompting water-use restrictions in several municipalities. Agricultural economists say drought-related losses could exceed €200 million, a blow to a sector employing one in five Serbian workers. Economic and political stakes • Serbia relies on exports for roughly 50 percent of GDP; any fall-off in U.S. and EU demand will tighten fiscal space and complicate Vučić’s promise of wage increases for public-sector employees. • Fitch Ratings has already warned that sustained unrest could trigger a negative outlook revision. • Protest leaders plan a “million-man march” in Belgrade this weekend, while police have doubled crowd-control deployments around government buildings. What happens next? If parliament refuses to call early elections, analysts expect protests to broaden into nationwide strikes, echoing 2000’s mass movement that ultimately ousted Slobodan Milošević. Vučić maintains he “will not yield to street pressure,” yet insiders say senior party figures are debating a limited cabinet reshuffle to placate moderates. For now, Serbia stands at a crossroads: continued confrontation risks deeper isolation and economic pain, while dialogue and reforms could reinvigorate its stalled European path. With temperatures—and tempers—rising, the coming days may determine whether the Balkan nation moves toward compromise or crisis.