Seattle Mariners Shock MLB with Late-Season Surge: Playoff Odds Skyrocket After Historic Winning Streak

Seattle, Wash. — The Seattle Mariners have transformed the American League playoff race after a torrid first week of September that cut Houston’s division lead to just two games. Powered by Julio Rodríguez’s latest second-half surge and a record-setting blast from catcher Cal Raleigh, Seattle suddenly looks like the club no contender wants to face down the stretch. Rodríguez, who owns a .342/.398/.640 slash line since the All-Star break, homered twice and swiped three bases during the Mariners’ weekend demolition of Atlanta, a series in which the offense produced 28 runs on 31 hits. Raleigh then punctuated Monday’s 18-2 rout with his 53rd long ball, eclipsing Mike Zunino’s single-season franchise record for catchers. Manager Scott Servais credited the breakthrough to an aggressive “swing early, run often” approach that has vaulted Seattle to first in MLB in stolen bases since August 1. “When Julio and J.P. get on, everything opens up,” Servais said after Tuesday’s 4-2 victory over St. Louis, a game that featured three straight first-pitch hits to chase Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas in the third inning. While the lineup grabs headlines, the pitching staff quietly owns the league’s lowest ERA (2.78) over the last 30 days. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have combined for a 1.91 ERA in that span, and recently promoted closer Bryce Miller converted his first three save chances without allowing a baserunner. The Mariners’ surge arrives at a pivotal time: only 19 games remain, including six head-to-head showdowns with the Astros that could decide the AL West crown. ESPN insider Jeff Passan rates Seattle’s odds of overtaking Houston “as good as their chances of missing the postseason entirely,” underscoring how razor-thin the margin remains. Key dates circle the calendar: a four-game set against the Rangers (Sept. 12-15) and a season-closing homestand versus Houston (Sept. 26-28). Win those, and Seattle could lock up its first division title since 2001—along with the inside track to host October baseball at T-Mobile Park. With Rodríguez peaking, Raleigh rewriting record books, and a rotation that refuses to blink, the Seattle Mariners have turned 2025’s stretch run into must-see TV for baseball fans—and a daily refresh for anyone tracking playoff odds. The next three weeks will reveal whether the Northwest’s hottest team can finish its climb from fringe Wild Card hopeful to AL West champion.