Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock Jumps After Major Quantum Contract—Is This the Next Tech Moonshot?

Updated 23 September 2025 RGTI Stock Extends Rally as Quantum Momentum, Analyst Upgrade and Air-Force Contract Converge Shares of Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) added another 8 % in early Tuesday trading, pushing the quantum-computing pioneer to a fresh 52-week peak of $32.40. The latest move caps a stunning 110 % month-to-date surge fueled by a trio of catalysts: a multimillion-dollar U.S. Air Force contract, a bullish price-target hike from B. Riley Securities, and growing investor appetite for next-generation computing plays. Key Drivers Behind the Breakout • Air Force win unlocks new revenue stream Rigetti confirmed last week that its unit secured a “mid-eight-figure” contract to co-develop quantum algorithms for defense logistics, the largest government award in the company’s history. Management said the deal will be recognized over 18 months and should push 2025 revenue toward the high end of its $15-$18 million guidance range, sending the stock up 24 % on the day of the announcement. • Analyst upgrade to Street-high $35 target On Monday, B. Riley raised its price objective from $19 to $35 and reiterated a Buy rating, citing “clearer commercial visibility” and “execution on the 84-qubit Ankaa-3 roadmap.” The note highlighted Rigetti’s plan to launch a 100-qubit machine by year-end and cross the 1,000-qubit threshold before 2030, arguing that recent contract momentum de-risks the path to profitability. The upgrade triggered a wave of algorithmic buying and option activity, lifting RGTI to an intraday record. • Sector tailwind Quantum peer names such as IonQ and D-Wave have also rallied on hopes that the upcoming U.S. Quantum Initiative Act 2.0 will expand federal funding. ETFs tracking advanced-computing hardware are hitting multi-month highs, helping funnel additional inflows toward smaller-cap players like Rigetti. What the Tape Is Saying Volume: Four-day average volume now sits at 42 million shares, nearly 7× the 90-day norm, signaling strong institutional participation. Technical setup: RGTI has broken out above its February 2024 high of $28.05 and is riding its upper Bollinger band for the fourth session in a row. The relative-strength index (RSI) sits at 81, suggesting overbought conditions, yet prior spikes have persisted longer as short sellers capitulate. Short interest: Latest FINRA data show 15.6 % of the free float sold short, down from 18 % a week ago but still elevated, providing potential fuel for additional squeezes. Valuation Check At $32, Rigetti’s market cap is roughly $4.1 billion, or 210× the midpoint of 2025 sales guidance. Bulls argue that classical metrics miss the optionality of first-mover advantage in quantum-as-a-service. Bears point to ongoing GAAP losses and lumpy contract revenue. Management reiterated on its August call that it expects operating cash flow breakeven by 2027 if it secures two more government or hyperscaler partnerships of comparable size. Risk Factors to Monitor • Execution risk on Ankaa-3 timeline and yield. • Budget uncertainty if Congress delays FY 2026 defense appropriations. • Insider sales: Director Helene Gail sold 17,635 shares last week, the first board-level disposal since April 2024. Upcoming Catalysts • Q3 earnings release – 6 November. • Potential inclusion in the Russell 2000 during December reconstitution. • Demonstration of 100-qubit system at SC25 supercomputing conference in November. Bottom Line RGTI’s explosive run reflects a perfect storm of contract wins, analyst enthusiasm and macro buzz around quantum computing. With short interest still elevated and new government funding on the horizon, momentum traders may remain in control. Long-term investors, however, should balance the technology’s promise against premium valuation and execution hurdles as Rigetti races to scale qubit counts and commercial revenue.