Nvidia Stock Surge: What’s Driving the Rally and Should You Buy Now?

Wall Street’s spotlight is fixed on Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) as the graphics-chip titan prepares to report fiscal Q1 results after the bell on Wednesday, 28 May. The stock, which vaulted more than 1,000 % between late 2022 and year-end 2024, is now down roughly 2 % year-to-date as investors weigh sky-high growth expectations against rising interest rates and renewed trade frictions. Why 28 May Could Be a Game-Changer • Earnings Catalyst: Consensus calls for revenue near $43.2 billion—up from $24.6 billion a year ago—and a 45 % surge in EPS, underscoring Nvidia’s dominance in artificial-intelligence (AI) accelerators. • Last of the “Magnificent Seven”: With the other mega-caps already in the books, Nvidia’s numbers will be the market’s final AI sentiment gauge this season. • Guidance Watch: Bulls want confirmation that hyperscale cloud providers will boost capital-expenditure budgets again in the second half of 2025. Key Themes Driving NVDA Stock 1. AI Chip Demand: Data-center revenue has exploded from $3 billion in fiscal 2020 to more than $115 billion in fiscal 2025, and new Blackwell GPUs could extend that run-rate. 2. Export Controls: Washington’s curbs on AI silicon shipped to China forced Nvidia to take a $5.5 billion charge last quarter, and investors will parse management commentary for work-arounds or incremental risks. 3. Trade & Tariffs: President Trump’s latest threats—50 % tariffs on EU goods and potential levies on iPhones—have injected fresh volatility into tech multiples and could influence forward guidance on gross margins. 4. Rising Yields: The 30-year U.S. Treasury briefly topped 5 %, pressuring growth-stock valuations; any further rate spike may cap multiple expansion. What Analysts Are Saying • Average 12-month price target: $164, implying ~25 % upside from Monday’s close, though a handful of firms warn that any top-line stumble could trigger a sharp derating. • Bulls argue that Nvidia’s software stack (CUDA, AI Enterprise, Omniverse) will unlock recurring high-margin revenue streams. • Bears point to decelerating sequential growth and stiffening competition from AMD, Intel and custom ASICs. Technical Levels to Monitor • Support: $128 – $130 (50-day moving average). • Resistance: $148 all-time high from January 2025; a clean break could ignite momentum algorithms. • Relative-strength index (RSI) is neutral near 52, leaving room for a post-earnings breakout in either direction. Investor Playbook Ahead of Earnings • Options Implied Move: The weekly at-the-money straddle prices in roughly an 8 % swing, providing a benchmark for traders deciding between calls, puts or premium-selling strategies. • Long-Term View: Secular AI demand, automotive-autonomy wins and an emerging networking franchise (InfiniBand, Spectrum-X) keep the structural growth story intact, but the market may demand flawless execution at this valuation. Bottom Line With AI still the market’s defining narrative, Nvidia’s report will set the tone for tech for the rest of the summer. A beat-and-raise could reignite the rally in NVDA stock and lift broader semiconductor names, while any hint of slowing hyperscale demand or tariff-driven margin compression may trigger a swift rotation into defensive sectors. Either way, Wednesday’s print is poised to be the pivotal event for anyone trading or investing in Nvidia stock in 2025.