NVDA Stock Soars: What Today’s Surge Means for Your Portfolio

Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) share price is back in focus as the chip designer prepares to report fiscal Q1 results after the closing bell on Wednesday, 28 May. The stock finished last week at $131.29, down about 2 % year-to-date but still up roughly 25 % over the past 12 months, underscoring the market’s elevated expectations for the company’s role in the artificial-intelligence boom. Key Points Investors Are Watching • Earnings snapshot: Wall Street is looking for revenue of roughly $43.4 billion, a 66 % annual increase, and adjusted EPS of $0.87. A beat would mark the fifth consecutive quarter of record results, but comparables are getting tougher and margins will be dissected after last quarter’s contraction. • Data-center dominance: Hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Apple and Amazon continue pouring billions into AI infrastructure, and analysts say a “disproportionate amount” of that spending still lands in Nvidia’s data-center segment. • China headwinds: U.S. export restrictions on the H20 accelerator could slice up to $5.5 billion in FY26 revenue, trimming Nvidia’s once-near-monopoly share of China’s AI chip market from 95 % to roughly 50 %. Management commentary on a lower-cost, export-compliant chip slated for September will be critical. • Guidance risk: Bank of America warns the company could guide July-quarter sales as low as $41 billion—well under the current ~$46 billion consensus—which would imply mid-teens downside to second-quarter EPS expectations. Wall Street Sentiment and Price Targets • Of the 18 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, 16 rate NVDA a “buy” and two say “hold,” with an average 12-month target near $164—about 25 % above Friday’s close. • Wedbush and Oppenheimer both carry “outperform” ratings and $175 targets, citing sustained AI-server demand. • Short-term caution is rising; several strategists flag the possibility of a “messy” guide, while longer-term bulls frame any post-earnings dip as a potential entry point into the AI supply-chain leader. Trading Levels to Watch • Immediate resistance sits around the 50-day moving average near $135; a breakout could pave the way toward the February peak at $143.44. • Support rests at $125, the bottom of the April pullback; a break could accelerate profit-taking ahead of the seasonally weak summer stretch. Why It Matters Nvidia’s quarterly update is widely viewed as a barometer for global AI spending. A clean beat-and-raise could reignite momentum across semiconductor and cloud-infrastructure names, while a cautious outlook may confirm fears that providers—and their enterprise customers—are starting to pace capital-expenditure plans. Either way, volatility around NVDA stock price and options markets is expected to be elevated into and after the print, offering both risk and opportunity for traders. Bottom Line NVDA stock remains the market’s premier AI pure play, but the May 28 earnings call must thread the needle between still-explosive data-center growth and mounting geopolitical and inventory headwinds. Investors positioning ahead of the release should weigh near-term guidance risk against the company’s unrivaled share of next-generation accelerator demand—and be prepared for a potentially sharp move once the numbers hit the tape.