NVDA Stock Soars to All-Time High on Explosive AI Demand—Should You Chase NVIDIA Shares Today?

Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) earnings report lands after today’s closing bell, and Wall Street is bracing for a potential jolt that could ripple through the entire semiconductor sector. Options-pricing data point to a swing of roughly 6 % in either direction by week’s end, implying a post-report trading range between about $127 and $144 per share—levels that bookend the stock’s four-month high and a key technical support zone. Why this quarter matters • Revenue growth deceleration vs. blockbuster 2024: Analysts see sales jumping about 66 % year-over-year, a sharp slowdown from triple-digit growth last year but still enough to dwarf peers in artificial-intelligence chips. • Margin watch: Cost inflation tied to next-gen Blackwell GPUs has some desk analysts modeling gross margin compression of 80–120 basis points. • China tariff overhang: The White House’s recent decision to ease proposed 50 % import tariffs on European goods calmed markets, but investors remain alert to potential curbs on advanced chip shipments to China that could cloud guidance. Stock performance into the print NVDA stock has rallied roughly 25 % in May, reclaiming leadership among Dow components and adding about $300 billion in market value year-to-date. Technical momentum flipped bullish after shares held the 200-day moving average in April, and the current up-leg has carved out a new support shelf at $131—a line traders are treating as the “must-hold” level should earnings underwhelm. Key numbers to track tonight • EPS consensus: $3.12 (GAAP) • Revenue consensus: $24.8 billion • Data-center share: Expected to exceed 80 % of total revenue for the first time • FY 2026 outlook: Buy-side whisper is for guidance above $110 billion, vs. the Street’s $107 billion baseline What could move the stock after hours 1. Supply cadence for Blackwell: Any hint that advanced packaging capacity is catching up with demand would reinforce the bull case. 2. Gross-margin surprise: A print north of 77 % could offset slower top-line growth. 3. Capital-return tweaks: Investors are speculating on an accelerated buyback after last year’s 10-for-1 split ignited retail interest. Sector implications The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has seen a surge in defensive put buying this week, signaling traders are hedging for a broader chip sell-off should NVDA disappoint. Conversely, a beat-and-raise could spark short-covering across AI infrastructure names, from AMD to Super Micro Computer. Bottom line With NVDA stock sitting near all-time highs, tonight’s numbers represent a high-stakes referendum on the durability of the AI spending cycle. Traders have drawn clear battle lines at $131 and $144; whichever breaks first could dictate the market’s next major trend.