NVDA Soars to All-Time High After NVIDIA Unveils Next-Gen AI Chip—Should You Buy Now?

Nvidia’s countdown to its 28 May earnings report has turned into the market’s most-watched tech event. With the share price still nursing a 2 % year-to-date loss after 2024’s triple-digit surge, investors want evidence that the AI chip leader can outrun new U.S. export restrictions and justify another leg higher for NVDA stock. Why Wednesday’s call matters • Street consensus points to fiscal-Q1 revenue of roughly $43.3 billion, a 66 % jump from a year ago, yet margins are expected to compress as the company absorbs a one-time charge of $5.5 billion tied to unsold H20 accelerators that were caught by October’s tighter China rules. • Analysts estimate the China ban clipped about $1 billion from the April quarter and could shave $3-4.5 billion per quarter from future sales if not offset. • CEO Jensen Huang has already hinted that Nvidia “walked away” from $15 billion in Chinese orders but is readying a lower-specced Blackwell-based chip for that market, aiming to defend a slice of what he values as a $50 billion AI opportunity in 2026. Wall Street’s $7 trillion powder keg BBVA strategists calculate that roughly $7 trillion remains parked in cash funds. A decisive beat from Nvidia could be the spark that redeploys some of that sidelined capital into tech, especially with hedge funds and CTAs still “undemanding” in their U.S. equity exposure. Key metrics to track 1. Data-center revenue share – now above 80 % and highly sensitive to cloud–AI capex cycles. 2. Gross margin trajectory – consensus sees ~67.7 %, down from 79 % last year; guidance here will signal pricing power for new Blackwell GPUs. 3. Inventory trends – any rise in finished-goods days could flag slower hyperscaler demand or lingering China disruption. 4. Capital return – Nvidia has $27 billion in cash; boosting its nascent dividend or accelerating buybacks could cushion volatility. Broader ripple effect A beat may lift the SOX index and reignite AI-hardware names, while a miss could pressure mega-caps and embolden bears arguing that AI infrastructure spending is peaking. Options markets imply an 8 % one-day swing for NVDA, and implied volatility has spilled into the broader Nasdaq complex. Bottom line Earnings day is not just about Nvidia’s headline numbers but about whether the company can prove its AI dominance is larger than geopolitics. If Huang delivers guidance that absorbs the China hit while preserving blistering top-line growth, the $7 trillion sitting in cash could find a new home—and NVDA could set the tone for tech through the summer.