NOAA Hurricane Center Issues Urgent Update: New Atlantic Storm Path Could Threaten East Coast—What You Need to Know

The NOAA Hurricane Center is raising alarms this week as its mid-season update confirms an above-normal pace for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season—a forecast that now appears to be unfolding in real time. The agency projects 13–19 named storms, of which 6–10 could become hurricanes and 2–5 may reach major-hurricane status, Category 3 or higher. Tropical Storm Erin now in the Atlantic Early Thursday, National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters upgraded an organizing system east of the Lesser Antilles to Tropical Storm Erin. As of the 11 a.m. EDT advisory, Erin was packing 50 mph sustained winds while tracking west-northwest at 15 mph. Computer models keep the center east of the Bahamas through Saturday, but a gradual curve toward the Southeast U.S. is possible early next week. The NHC urges residents from Florida to the Carolinas to review readiness plans in case watches or warnings are issued. Disturbance brewing in the Gulf of Mexico A separate tropical wave entering the Bay of Campeche is showing a 40 percent chance of development over the next five days, according to the latest 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Warm sea-surface temperatures above 29 °C and low vertical wind shear could allow rapid intensification if the system lingers. Why 2025 is trending above average Forecasters link the active setup to a record-warm Atlantic Main Development Region, reduced Saharan dust, and a weakening El Niño that no longer suppresses thunderstorm growth. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the probability of an above-normal season is now 50 percent, versus just 15 percent for below-normal activity. Preparedness checklist • Verify emergency kits: one-week supply of water, non-perishable food, medications, radios, and chargers. • Update insurance papers and photograph property for claims. • Trim trees and secure loose outdoor items before watches are posted. • Sign up for official NWS Wireless Emergency Alerts and follow @NHC_Atlantic for real-time advisories. Looking ahead With peak hurricane climatology arriving in mid-September, the NOAA Hurricane Center stresses that “it only takes one storm” to bring life-altering impacts to a coastal community. Continue checking the NHC’s cone forecasts twice daily and act quickly if local officials call for evacuations.