NOAA's New Hurricane Forecast Warns of Hyper-Active Atlantic Season—Here’s What You Need to Know

Updated NOAA Outlook Signals Busy 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now projects a 60 % probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with 13–19 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes and 3–5 major hurricanes expected between June 1 and November 30 2025. Forecasters give the outlook a 70 % confidence rating, citing record-warm Atlantic waters, continued ENSO-neutral conditions and reduced vertical wind shear as the main drivers of heightened activity. Key Numbers at a Glance • Named storms (≥39 mph): 13–19 • Hurricanes (≥74 mph): 6–10 • Major hurricanes (Cat 3+): 3–5 • Chance of above-normal season: 60 % • Chance of near-normal season: 30 % • Chance of below-normal season: 10 % Why Forecasters Expect More Storms • Record sea-surface temperatures provide extra fuel for cyclone development. • Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) limits disruptive Pacific wind shear. • A potentially stronger West African monsoon can send more robust tropical waves across the Atlantic. • The current multidecadal “high-activity era” continues, featuring higher ocean-heat content and weaker trade winds. Early-Season Activity: Tropical Storm Barry The season’s second named system, Tropical Storm Barry, briefly reached 45 mph in the southern Gulf of Mexico before weakening and making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, late June 29. Heavy rainfall triggered flash-flood alerts across eastern Mexico, while U.S. Gulf Coast communities monitored the system for rip-current and high-surf hazards. Barry’s quick spin-up underscores NOAA’s call for early preparedness even during so-called “quiet” periods. Innovation in Forecasting • NOAA’s upgraded Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) is expected to improve track and intensity guidance by another 5 %, helping forecasters refine watches and warnings earlier in a storm’s life cycle. • Beginning this season, tropical cyclone advisory products may be issued up to 72 hours before the arrival of tropical-storm-force winds, giving coastal residents an extra day to secure property and finalize evacuation plans. • Experimental electronically scanning radar (ROARS) aboard NOAA’s P-3 “hurricane hunter” aircraft will gather high-resolution data on ocean-surface winds and waves, better resolving rapid-intensification events. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Name List Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Debby, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, William, Xina, York, Zachary Preparedness Checklist 1. Review flood-zone maps and know local evacuation routes. 2. Restock a three-day supply kit: water, non-perishable food, medications, batteries, and important documents. 3. Inspect roof, windows, and gutters; install hurricane shutters if applicable. 4. Confirm insurance coverage for wind and flood damage. 5. Subscribe to NOAA Weather Radio or local emergency alerts for real-time updates. Mid-Season Update Coming in August NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will release a refined outlook in early August, ahead of the climatological peak in September. History shows that 90 % of Category 3+ landfalls occur after August 1, so a quiet July does not reduce overall risk. Communities from Texas to New England—and well inland—should remain vigilant. Bottom Line With warm Atlantic waters and favorable atmospheric conditions lining up, the 2025 hurricane season is primed to outpace historical averages. NOAA urges residents in hurricane-prone regions to finalize preparedness plans now rather than wait for the next storm headline.