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New Zealand is bracing for an unusual burst of early-summer warmth this weekend, accompanied by bands of heavy rain and potentially damaging winds, according to the latest MetService forecasts.
WHAT’S DRIVING THE HEAT
A warm, moisture-laden system sweeping in from the Tasman Sea is funnelling subtropical air across both islands. MetService meteorologist John Law says the setup will deliver a “burst of warmth” that could push daytime highs well beyond seasonal norms, especially on the east coasts.
TEMPERATURES TO WATCH
• Napier and Hastings: up to 27 °C with sticky overnight lows near 17 °C.
• Christchurch & Kaikōura: 24–25 °C, boosted by dry foehn winds spilling off the Southern Alps.
• Auckland: humid 22 °C days and muggy 14–15 °C nights.
• Wellington: highs around 18 °C, lows near 15 °C.
RAIN & WIND WARNINGS
Orange heavy-rain warnings cover Buller, Grey and Westland districts and the Tararua Range until Saturday, while the Canterbury High Country is under an orange strong-wind warning for gusty north-westerlies. MetService has also issued watches for several surrounding regions as the system tracks east. Residents are urged to clear drains, secure loose outdoor items and avoid unnecessary alpine travel until warnings lift.
FIRE RISK RISES
Despite the wet forecast for the West Coast, foehn winds and soaring temperatures raise a moderate fire danger in Canterbury. Fire and Emergency New Zealand advises farmers and rural homeowners to postpone burn-offs and check local restrictions.
TRAVEL & EVENT IMPACTS
• State Highway 6 on the West Coast may face surface flooding and slips—plan detours or extra travel time.
• Weekend outdoor events in Christchurch, Nelson and Hawke’s Bay should prepare sun shelters and hydration stations as UV levels climb.
• Interislander and Bluebridge ferry passengers could experience delays if northerly swells strengthen in Cook Strait.
LOOKING AHEAD
The warm spell is forecast to ease early next week as a cooler south-westerly change sweeps up the country, returning temperatures to near-average levels. Long-range outlooks from NIWA suggest near-normal to below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the South Pacific this season, but forecasters caution that even a single cyclone landfall can cause severe impacts.
QUICK FAQ
Why is New Zealand so warm in October?
A Tasman Sea low is dragging subtropical air over the country while foehn winds compress and heat the eastern regions.
Where will rain be heaviest?
Buller, Grey District, northern Westland and the headwaters of Canterbury’s lakes and rivers.
How long will the heat last?
MetService expects two to three days of above-average temperatures before a cooler change arrives early next week.
Stay up to date by checking the latest MetService watches and warnings before you travel or plan outdoor activities.
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