National Hurricane Center Warns of Rapidly Intensifying Atlantic Storm—Prepare Now

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking rapidly evolving Tropical Storm Melissa in the western Caribbean this morning, and forecasters warn the system could reach hurricane strength before nearing the Yucatán Channel late Thursday. According to the 5 a.m. EDT advisory, Melissa’s maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph, but warm sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear are expected to fuel steady intensification over the next 36 hours. The official forecast cone shows Melissa curving north-northwest, passing just west of Cuba tomorrow night and entering the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Key points from the latest NHC outlook • Storm track: Confidence is growing that Melissa will skirt Cuba’s west coast and move toward the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend region this weekend. Residents from Naples to Apalachicola are urged to monitor updates closely. • Potential intensity: The NHC predicts Melissa could become a Category 1 hurricane (≥ 74 mph) by Friday afternoon. A period of rapid intensification cannot be ruled out given 30 °C (86 °F) water and a moist atmospheric envelope. • Watches and warnings: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Hurricane Watches may be issued for portions of south-central Cuba and the Florida Keys later today. • Hazards: Regardless of exact track, Melissa is expected to dump 4–8 inches of rain—locally 12 inches—across Jamaica, Cuba and South Florida. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are possible in mountainous terrain. Mariners in the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf should anticipate seas building to 10–15 feet. Florida’s emergency management officials have activated Level 2 operations. “Now is the time to review your hurricane plan, check supplies and know your evacuation zone,” said Division Director Kevin Guthrie during a Wednesday briefing streamed online. Sandbag locations opened overnight in Collier, Lee and Charlotte counties, and fuel deliveries are being expedited across Southwest Florida to avoid pre-storm shortages. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, the NHC is monitoring a separate tropical wave near 45° W with a low (20 percent) chance of development over the next seven days. While this disturbance is not an immediate threat to land, it underscores how active the late-October climatological peak can be. Tips for staying prepared 1. Sign up for NHC advisory alerts and local government text notifications. 2. Stock at least three days of food, water, prescription drugs and batteries. 3. If you live in a mobile home or low-lying area, identify a sturdy shelter now, before any evacuation order is issued. 4. Keep vehicles at least half-full of fuel; expect long lines once watches are announced. 5. Secure outdoor furniture and trim tree limbs to reduce projectile hazards in high winds. The 2025 Atlantic season has already produced 13 named storms—Melissa included—matching long-term annual averages but still running ahead of schedule for late October. Forecasters attribute the energetic season to record-warm ocean waters and a persistent La Niña pattern that suppresses upper-level wind shear. The next full advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. EDT, with intermediate updates every three hours. Residents in the potential impact zone should finalize preparations today, stay tuned to trusted meteorological sources and heed any instructions from local emergency managers.