National Hurricane Center Warns of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Storm Heading for Gulf Coast — What You Need to Know

MIAMI, Fla. (Oct. 26, 2025) — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Hurricane Melissa has exploded into a dangerous Category 4 storm overnight, packing sustained winds of 140 mph (120 kt) with higher gusts as it churns just south of Jamaica at latitude 16.3° N, longitude 76.3° W. Forecasters warn that further strengthening is likely today as the major hurricane crawls west at 5 mph. Key points • Category 4 intensity: Maximum winds are forecast to reach 160 mph later today, placing Melissa near the top of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. • Slow, menacing track: The storm’s sluggish motion will prolong destructive winds, torrential rain and life-threatening storm surge along its path. • High-impact zone: Jamaica faces hurricane-force conditions tonight, followed by eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas early this week. • Rainfall threat: 12–20 inches of rain, with isolated totals to 30 inches, could trigger catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in mountainous terrain. • Surge potential: Coastal inundation of 6–10 feet above ground level is possible along south-facing shores of Jamaica and eastern Cuba where onshore flow persists. Current watches and warnings Hurricane warnings are in effect for Jamaica and for Cuba’s provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo. A hurricane watch extends to the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Hispaniola and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center. Forecast track and timing • Sunday PM: Eye passes 50–75 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, bringing the eyewall across the island’s southern parishes. • Monday: Center drifts west-northwest, then turns north toward eastern Cuba, making landfall near Santiago de Cuba late Monday night. • Tuesday–Wednesday: Melissa emerges over the Atlantic near the Windward Passage, skirting the Bahamas while gradually weakening but remaining a hurricane. • Late week: Long-range guidance suggests a recurvature into the open Atlantic, but confidence beyond five days remains low. Impacts by region Jamaica: Prolonged hurricane-force winds will topple trees and power lines, while mountainous areas could see deadly mudslides. Storm surge flooding is expected along Kingston Harbour and the south coast. Cuba: Eastern provinces should complete preparations immediately; rapid rises of rivers and coastal surge could isolate communities. Southern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos: Tropical-storm-force winds may arrive as early as Tuesday morning, with squalls and dangerous surf building tonight. Caribbean waters: Seas of 20–30 feet and frequent white-out squalls make conditions extremely hazardous for marine interests. Preparation tips from the NHC 1. Finalize hurricane plans and move to sturdy shelter before tropical-storm-force winds begin. 2. Secure outdoor objects, board up windows and gather at least three days of food, water and medications. 3. Never drive through flooded roadways; water may be deeper and faster-moving than it appears. 4. Keep battery-powered devices charged and monitor local officials for evacuation orders. Season context Melissa is the seventh major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, underscoring a hyper-active year driven by record-warm sea-surface temperatures. The National Hurricane Center reminds coastal residents that more than half of all tropical-cyclone fatalities occur from water, not wind. Next advisory The NHC will issue an intermediate public advisory at 11 a.m. EDT, followed by a full forecast package at 5 p.m. For the latest maps, key messages and audio briefings, visit hurricanes.gov. Stay alert, stay prepared, and heed all guidance from your local emergency management office as Hurricane Melissa barrels through the Caribbean.