MSTR Stock Soars as Bitcoin Rallies—Is Now the Time to Buy MicroStrategy?

Shares of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) are back in the spotlight after the enterprise-software-turned-Bitcoin proxy revealed yet another aggressive crypto purchase over the U.S. Memorial Day weekend. According to a regulatory filing, the company raised roughly $427 million through its at-the-market equity program between 19 May and 25 May and deployed the entire sum to acquire 4,020 BTC at an average price near $106,000 per coin. That haul lifts MicroStrategy’s treasury to a record 580,250 BTC, valued at about $64 billion with Bitcoin trading around $110,000 early Tuesday. The company’s cumulative cost basis now sits near $38.5 billion, implying an unrealized gain of roughly $25.5 billion on paper—even after the firm trimmed its average purchase price to $66,385 per Bitcoin. Despite the headline-grabbing profit, MSTR stock has lagged the underlying crypto in recent sessions. The share price closed last Friday at $369.51, down 7.5 % on the day and nearly 20 % below its May intraday peak of $462. Much of that pullback stems from dilution worries: since April, MicroStrategy has sold roughly $1.3 billion in new equity, increasing its share count by more than 10 %. Management argues the capital infusions are accretive because each dollar raised buys Bitcoin that historically appreciates faster than the stock’s implied premium, but short-term traders remain nervous. Volatility is nothing new for this Bitcoin-linked equity. Over the past 12 months MSTR has swung from $245 to $462, a 90 % range that closely mirrors Bitcoin’s own boom-bust cycles. With BTC holding above six figures and the spot-ETF bid still intact, several Wall Street desks have started floating fresh price targets: the average 12-month view collected by MarketBeat calls for $515, implying 39 % upside, while the street high sits at $650. Key catalysts investors will watch in coming weeks include: (1) Bitcoin’s push toward its all-time high of $111,861 set last Thursday, (2) MicroStrategy’s next quarterly print, where the firm will mark its immense crypto haul at fair value under new FASB accounting rules, and (3) any additional ATM activity that could either fuel more Bitcoin buying or exacerbate dilution. Bottom line: As long as CEO Michael Saylor keeps adding to the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin stack, MSTR will likely trade as a high-beta call option on the flagship cryptocurrency. For traders comfortable with amplified crypto exposure—and the potential for further share issuance—the recent dip below $400 could be a chance to accumulate. For everyone else, the stock’s fate remains tethered to the next big swing in Bitcoin’s price.