Meta Stock Price Jumps Ahead of Earnings—Should You Buy Before the Next Surge?

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) shares opened the week under pressure, slipping 2.3 % to $710.56 on Friday before clawing back modest gains in Monday’s pre-market session as investors digest fresh commentary on the company’s aggressive artificial-intelligence spending plans and brace for Q3 earnings on 29 October. H2: Why the Stock Is Volatile Right Now • AI CAPEX SURGE ─ Management has telegraphed that 2025 capital expenditures will reach the upper end of its $40 billion–$45 billion guide, with a growing chunk directed toward in-house AI model training and custom silicon. Analysts at The Motley Fool argue this spending ramp could widen Meta’s data-moat and strengthen its ad-targeting edge, but it will dent near-term free cash flow. • MIXED VALUATION SIGNALS ─ Morningstar maintains a 3-star rating on META, pegging fair value at $770 and calling the stock “marginally undervalued,” implying around 8 % upside from current levels. H2: Key Numbers to Watch on 29 October • Revenue: Wall Street consensus sits at $48.8 billion, the midpoint of Meta’s own $47.5–$50.5 billion outlook. • EPS: Analysts expect $6.74, up 34 % year over year thanks to higher ad load and cost cuts in Reality Labs. • Daily Active Users: Anything below 2.2 billion could reignite worries that TikTok and short-form video are capping growth. H2: Catalysts Through Year-End 2025 1. Threads Monetization – Meta said in September it would switch on ads “later this year,” a move JPMorgan projects could add $3 billion in incremental revenue during 2026. 2. Metaverse Cost Discipline – Investors want Reality Labs operating losses capped near $15 billion for 2025; any move above that range could pressure multiples. 3. Buyback Pace – Meta repurchased $30 billion of stock in the first half; a similar authorization for 2026 could offset dilution from stock-based comp. H2: Technical Picture From a chart perspective, META is testing support near its 100-day moving average around $705. A decisive break below may open downside toward $670, while a close above $735 would signal a resumption of the year-long uptrend. H2: Bottom Line Meta stock remains a battleground between bulls betting on AI-driven ad efficiency and skeptics wary of escalating CAPEX and metaverse drag. With earnings less than four weeks away, volatility is likely to stay elevated. Long-term investors eyeing a position may prefer to scale in ahead of results, while short-term traders should brace for wide swings as guidance headlines hit the tape.