Former Trump Economist Kevin Hassett Predicts “Seismic” U.S. Recession—Here’s What Investors Should Know

Washington — Kevin Hassett, the White House’s National Economic Council director and a leading architect of President Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill,” has quietly amassed a vested stock stake in Coinbase Global Inc. worth at least $1 million — and potentially up to $5 million — according to a newly released financial-disclosure filing. The revelation lands just days after Hassett used a high-profile appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation” to defend the administration’s sweeping tax-and-tariff agenda, insist that “waste, fraud and abuse” — not Medicare benefits — is the only entitlement target, and predict a “4 percent GDP hit” if Congress fails to pass the bill by July 4. Crypto conflict-of-interest questions Ethics advocates say Hassett’s seven-figure crypto holding could complicate ongoing White House deliberations over digital-asset policy, including stable-coin licensing and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s long-awaited spot-ETF framework. Coinbase, already the largest U.S. crypto exchange, stands to benefit directly from lighter regulation or preferential tax treatment contemplated inside the bill. Why the stake matters for “Big, Beautiful Bill” • 5 % excise tax on offshore crypto transactions is on the table, according to two GOP aides. • A capital-gains holiday for repatriated Web3 profits is part of the latest House draft. • Hassett is the administration’s point person in bicameral negotiations, giving him unusual influence over language that could move Coinbase’s share price. Tariffs, trade and recession fears Hassett is simultaneously reassuring markets that new reciprocal tariffs on China will “raise $2.8 trillion in revenue over 10 years” while leaving inflation “at a four-year low,” countering Federal Reserve warnings that an expanded trade war could pinch supply chains and cool consumer spending. Medical-care flashpoint Although Senate Republicans floated trims to Medicare in early drafts, Hassett now insists the program is “totally not on the table,” a pivot Democrats cite as proof the White House lacks a coherent deficit-reduction plan. The statement has eased seniors’ groups but sharpened criticism from fiscal hawks who view entitlement reform as essential. What happens next • July 8: Senate Finance Committee marks up its version of the tax bill. • Mid-July: Office of Government Ethics expected to review Hassett’s Coinbase disclosure. • Late July: Treasury, Commerce and USTR officials meet Chinese counterparts in London to finalize a critical-minerals deal that could determine whether planned tariff escalations proceed. Market snapshot Coinbase (COIN) is up 4 % since the filing surfaced, outperforming the broader crypto-equity index. Treasury yields remain range-bound as traders weigh recession odds against Hassett’s promised “blowout growth.” Bottom line Kevin Hassett’s dual role as chief economic salesman and crypto shareholder intensifies scrutiny of the White House’s evolving tax, trade and digital-asset strategy. With Wall Street, Beijing and Main Street seniors all watching, the next four weeks could define both the future of U.S. economic policy and Hassett’s own legacy.