John Deere Stock Surges: Analysts Debate If It’s the Perfect Buy Before Upcoming Earnings

Wall Street eyes John Deere (DE) as shares hover near $516 ahead of a pivotal earnings season John Deere shares have traded sideways in January, closing at $516.54 on 26 January 2026, as investors wait for fresh clues on whether the world’s largest farm-equipment maker can plow through what management calls the “trough year” of the agricultural cycle. Demand slump meets cost pressures Deere shocked the Street in late-2025 when it projected fiscal-2026 net income of just $4 billion–$4.75 billion, below consensus estimates of roughly $5.3 billion and down from the $5.0 billion earned in 2025. The company blamed lower large-ag equipment orders, softer crop prices and lingering tariff costs on imported components. Analysts at several brokerages now expect adjusted EPS to drop to about $17.51 this fiscal year, a 5 percent decline, before rebounding to more than $22 in 2027 as replacement demand and autonomy upgrades kick in. Catalysts on the horizon • Q1-2026 results (due 19 February) will give the first hard read on how North American order books held up through winter and whether price increases are offsetting volume loss. • Early spring planting intentions from the USDA could signal a lift in farmer sentiment and cap-ex. • Management’s update on its “Leap Ambition” tech roadmap—especially autonomous tillage and precision spraying—could reshape margin forecasts. Is DE stock a buy, sell or hold? Valuation: At ~15× forward earnings, Deere trades at a discount to the S&P 500 Industrials (~19×) but a premium to machinery peers exposed to construction rather than ag. That leaves room for multiple expansion if 2026 really is the bottom. Dividends & buybacks: The 1.3 percent yield is modest, yet Deere has hiked its payout for five straight years while repurchasing roughly $5 billion in stock since 2023. Risks: A deeper downturn in commodity prices, faster-than-expected rate cuts that spike the dollar (hurting exports), or delays in autonomy rollouts could push earnings below guidance. Search interest spiking—will volume follow? Retail trading platforms report increased watch-list additions for DE as investors scan for “cycle bottom” plays in 2026. Historically, Deere shares have outperformed the broader market by an average of 18 percent in the 12 months following the end of a major ag-downturn, according to Macrotrends data. Bottom line John Deere stock is stuck in neutral as the market waits for proof that 2026 truly marks the trough. A revenue beat coupled with upbeat commentary on precision-ag adoption could ignite a rally, while another guidance cut could drive the share price back toward its $480 November low. Traders looking for cyclical upside may want to start building positions before earnings, but long-term investors should brace for volatility until crop prices and farmer cash flow firm up.