Joby Aviation (JOBY) Stock Surges After FAA Certification Breakthrough—Is Now the Time to Buy?

KEY TAKEAWAYS • Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) stock has surrendered roughly 15 % since August while still holding a gain of more than 60 % for 2025. • Profit-taking, a widening valuation gap versus peers, and fresh analyst downgrades weighed on the shares after a summertime rally. • Management is pushing ahead with FAA certification and just announced a deal to integrate Blade’s air-mobility services into the Uber app, opening a new distribution channel. • Upcoming catalysts include New York City demonstration flights in Q4, Phase 3 FAA testing data, and the company’s Q3 earnings call in early November. RECENT PRICE ACTION After peaking near $17 in late July, JOBY stock slid to the low-$13 range, giving back 15 % in August alone and extending losses in early September. Despite the pull-back, the shares remain one of 2025’s top eVTOL performers, up roughly two-thirds year-to-date. WHY THE SELL-OFF? • Valuation hangover – At July’s peak the stock traded at more than 20× 2027 consensus sales, well above Archer Aviation and Lilium. • Lock-up expiration – Early-stage investors took advantage of the summer surge to cash out, boosting float and short interest. • Mixed analyst sentiment – Several Wall Street firms reiterated low-double-digit targets, warning that commercialization risks still outweigh revenue visibility. STRATEGIC MILESTONES KEEP COMING On 10 September Joby said it will make Blade’s helicopter routes bookable inside the Uber app, a move that could funnel millions of ride-sharing users into future eVTOL flights once certified. The company is also expanding its manufacturing footprint in Marina, California, and expects to complete Phase 3 flight-testing with the FAA before year-end. WHAT ANALYSTS ARE WATCHING According to Nasdaq-published commentary, bulls argue that Joby’s first-mover advantage, cash pile above $1.2 billion, and partnership pipeline could help the stock “crush the market” after certification. Bears counter that every quarter of delay burns roughly $100 million and could force a secondary offering in 2026. LOOKING AHEAD • NYC demonstration flights: Joby plans to operate air-taxi runs between Manhattan heliports this fall, providing a high-visibility showcase for regulators and investors. • FAA progress report: A Phase 3 update is expected in late October; completion would leave two phases before full Part 135 certification. • Q3 earnings: Management guidance on cash burn and ride-sharing integration metrics will be critical to near-term sentiment. BOTTOM LINE The recent correction has reset JOBY’s price closer to fundamental reality, but with multiple catalysts on the calendar, volatility is likely to stay elevated. Investors eyeing exposure to the urban-air-mobility megatrend should watch certification milestones, partnership traction, and capital-raising needs as the next inflection points for Joby Aviation stock.