Iran Threatens War in Strait of Hormuz, Sending Oil Prices Soaring

(Tehran/Muscat, 27 April 2026) Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Moscow on Monday as diplomatic efforts intensified to end the six-week war pitting Iran against a US-led coalition and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest energy chokepoint. The waterway has been closed since 13 April, when Washington imposed a naval blockade after Iranian forces mined the channel and seized two Singapore-flagged tankers, triggering a 30 percent spike in Brent crude. Escalating naval stand-off • The US Fifth Fleet confirmed that three Iranian fast-attack craft shadowed the carrier USS John F. Kennedy on Sunday but maintained a 5-nautical-mile buffer after warning shots were fired. • Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims it has laid “smart mines” throughout the channel and vowed to strike any vessel “serving the aggressors.” • Lloyd’s List registers at least 47 super-tankers now bottled up on the Gulf side of Hormuz, holding roughly 90 million barrels of crude. Oil markets on edge Brent futures briefly touched $139 per barrel overnight before retreating to $131 as traders weighed reports that Tehran may allow a limited humanitarian corridor for Qatari LNG carriers. Analysts at JP Morgan warn a protracted closure could shave 1.2 percent off global GDP this quarter. Diplomatic flurry In Moscow, Araghchi is expected to meet President Vladimir Putin and Chinese envoy Wang Yi to discuss a Russian-Chinese monitoring mission that could guarantee tanker safety. US President Donald Trump reiterated that “Iranian leaders can pick up the phone,” signalling Washington’s openness to direct talks if Iran lifts its blockade first. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he is “ready to travel to either capital” once a 48-hour ceasefire is secured. Regional reverberations • Saudi Arabia has activated contingency pipelines to the Red Sea, but capacity covers only half of its normal exports. • Iraq’s southern terminals remain operational, yet insurers have doubled war-risk premiums, deterring many shippers. • Asian refiners in Japan and South Korea have started drawing down strategic reserves; both governments issued joint statements urging restraint. Humanitarian impact The Iranian rial has lost 42 percent of its value since fighting began, and basic staples such as cooking oil and rice have doubled in price in Tehran’s bazaars. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates 1.8 million people inside Iran now require emergency assistance, mainly medicines for chronic illnesses. What happens next Military analysts at the Institute for the Study of War say Iran’s leadership is split between hard-line IRGC commanders opposing any concession and President Mohammad Tajik’s civilian cabinet, which fears economic collapse if the strait remains shut. Sources in Muscat indicate Oman is drafting a proposal for synchronized de-mining, monitored by Gulf Cooperation Council observers, in exchange for phased sanctions relief. With global supply chains straining and the summer driving season looming, pressure is mounting on all parties to strike a deal before oil prices inflict deeper economic damage.