Iran Nuclear Deal Shock: Secret Enrichment Surge Revealed, Global Powers Race to Respond

A volatile mix of fresh intelligence, political brinkmanship and on-the-ground damage assessments is reshaping the debate over Iran’s nuclear future only twelve days after U.S. “bunker-buster” strikes slammed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Washington’s early triumphalism fades A leaked Defense Intelligence Agency summary reviewed by lawmakers concludes the bombardment may have delayed Tehran’s ability to produce weapons-grade uranium by “a matter of months,” not years, contradicting President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “totally obliterated.” The White House insists more data are incoming, but the leak has already spurred skepticism in Congress and among U.S. allies. IAEA frozen out as uranium stocks go missing International Atomic Energy Agency director-general Rafael Grossi says inspectors have been barred since the June 13 first wave of strikes; without site access the agency cannot verify the fate of roughly 120 kg of 60 %-enriched uranium—enough for two nuclear weapons if further refined. Grossi warned that “much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium may have been moved” shortly after the first bombs fell, heightening fears of a clandestine restart once repairs begin. Tehran doubles down at home, hints at talks abroad Inside Iran, lawmakers fast-tracked a bill suspending all cooperation with the IAEA and ordering the government to “accelerate the peaceful nuclear programme.” Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf called the measure a “strategic reaction to aggression.” Yet the same day, President Ebrahim Raisi’s office confirmed back-channel preparations for U.S.–Iran negotiations “next week,” a move Trump also flagged at the NATO summit in The Hague. Damage report: what satellite images show Commercial imagery released by Maxar Technologies reveals cratered entrances, collapsed ventilation shafts and destroyed power substations at Fordow, but analysts note that the core underground halls appear intact. At Natanz, the new underground hall—buried 80 m below limestone—shows scorch marks at access portals but no roof penetration. Engineers could re-route electricity and dig out rubble in “one to three months,” according to non-proliferation think-tank ISIS. Regional tremors and global stakes France, Germany and the U.K. have each launched independent damage reviews, with President Emmanuel Macron calling the Israel–Iran ceasefire “fragile” and urging an urgent return to diplomacy. China, India and Turkey—key buyers of sanctioned Iranian oil—are watching for any U.S. sanctions relaxation after Trump hinted that Tehran will “need money to rebuild.” Why search interest is exploding • Conflicting U.S. intelligence and presidential claims fuel uncertainty. • Iran’s parliament has legally severed ties with the IAEA, raising breakout fears. • Satellite photos provide rare, verifiable clues on strike effectiveness. • Prospective U.S.–Iran talks could redefine the moribund 2015 nuclear deal. • Missing enriched-uranium stockpiles ignite worries of covert relocation. What happens next • IAEA access: The quickest path to clarity is Tehran granting inspectors immediate entry—a move now unlikely unless talks materialize. • Repair timeline: Western officials estimate Iran could have at least one cascade of IR-6 centrifuges spinning again by early autumn if left unchecked. • Diplomatic window: U.S. envoys say any agreement must mandate real-time camera monitoring and capped enrichment at 3.67 %—a return to original JCPOA limits. • Sanctions calculus: The White House faces pressure to tighten, not loosen, oil enforcement while uncertainty over Iran’s capabilities remains. Bottom line The strikes may have bloodied Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but they also triggered a legislative backlash in Tehran and a data blackout for global inspectors. Until independent experts set foot inside Fordow and Natanz—or a robust diplomatic pact locks in new limits—the world must assume that Iran’s nuclear clock, though slowed, is still ticking.