Illinois St vs UC Davis Prediction, Live Stream & Start Time: FCS Showdown You Can’t Miss

Saturday’s FCS quarterfinal in Davis, California, delivers a high-stakes showdown as the Illinois State Redbirds meet the No. 8-seed UC Davis Aggies. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. CT (2 p.m. PT) on ESPN+, with UC Davis entering as a narrow 3-point favorite according to DraftKings odds listed by ESPN. Why the matchup matters • Semifinal ticket: The winner advances to face Villanova, which eliminated Tarleton State earlier in the day. • Revenge angle: UC Davis throttled Illinois State 42-10 in the 2024 playoffs, but the Redbirds have since evolved behind quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse and a ferocious pass rush. • Red-hot Redbirds: Illinois State stunned No. 1 North Dakota State last week, scoring 15 points in the final three minutes to win 29-28. • Aggie arsenal: Freshman quarterback Caden Pinnick (2,804 yds, 29 TD) pilots an offense averaging 36.1 points, with big-play receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr. (1,070 yds) stretching defenses. Key players to watch 1. Illinois State DE Garret Steffen – 6.5 sacks and relentless edge pressure. 2. LB Tye Niekamp – 145 tackles anchor the Redbird front seven. 3. UC Davis RB Jordan Fisher – 1,051 rush yards; his success keeps Illinois State’s rush off balance. 4. UC Davis OLB Jacob Psyk – 10 sacks; critical in forcing Rittenhouse into mistakes. Stat snapshot • Redbirds’ defense: 3.17 sacks per game over last six contests. • Aggies’ offense: 70 percent completion rate for Pinnick, plus 411 rush yards. • Turnover watch: Illinois State survived five Rittenhouse INTs vs. NDSU; ball security is paramount today. How to watch & stream • Channel/stream: ESPN+ (subscription). • Radio: WBNQ (Illinois State) and KHTK 1140 AM (Northern California). • Tickets: Limited seats remain via VividSeats from $61. Betting line & weather • Spread: UC Davis –3 • Over/Under: 57.5 points • Moneyline: ILST +124 / UCD –148 • Forecast: Clear skies, 43°F at kickoff, light wind from the north. Game plan breakdown Illinois State wants to dictate tempo with RB Victor Dawson (948 yds) and convert deep shots to Daniel Sobkowicz (14 TD). UC Davis counters with tempo, pre-snap motion and the dual-threat legs of Pinnick to neutralize the Redbird pass rush. Special teams could tilt the field; Illinois State’s Logan Pfeiffer averages 43.8 yards per punt, but UC Davis KR Tre Jenkins has two TD returns. Prediction Expect a one-score thriller. If Illinois State forces Pinnick off his spot, the upset is live, but UC Davis’ balance, home-field energy at UC Davis Health Stadium and late-game efficiency give the Aggies the edge. Score pick: UC Davis 38, Illinois State 34.