Hurricane & Tropical Storm Warning: Live Tracker, Impact Forecasts, and Essential Safety Tips

Key points • Tropical Storm Jerry becomes the 10th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and is forecast to reach hurricane strength late Friday or early Saturday, Oct. 10 UTC. • The storm is racing west-northwest at nearly 25 mph, a track that will bring heavy rain and dangerous surf to the northern Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. • Current National Hurricane Center (NHC) intensity guidance shows Jerry peaking as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80-90 mph before encountering stronger wind shear north of Hispaniola. • Spaghetti models cluster north of the Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas; early next week most guidance curves Jerry out to sea, but a small envelope still points it toward the Southeast U.S. coast. Coastal residents from Florida to the Carolinas should monitor updates. • Meanwhile, a separate subtropical disturbance east of Bermuda could become the season’s 11th named storm by Sunday, highlighting that the climatological “second peak” of hurricane season in mid-October is under way. Current location and forecast track At 11 a.m. AST Friday, the NHC placed Jerry near 16.8° N, 54.3° W, about 465 miles east of the Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum central pressure of 999 mb. A west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Saturday, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, primarily on the north side of the center, so squalls will arrive well before the eye passes to the north of the islands. Rainfall, wind and surge impacts • Rain: 2-4 inches, isolated 6 inches, across the Leewards, Virgin Islands, and eastern Puerto Rico may trigger flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. • Wind: Gusts 40-60 mph are possible across the warning area Friday night into Saturday. If Jerry strengthens faster than expected, hurricane-force gusts cannot be ruled out for Anegada, Virgin Gorda, and St. Thomas. • Surge: Seas of 6-10 ft and dangerous rip currents will overspread the northeastern Caribbean tonight and persist through the weekend, even as the center pulls away. Why October matters Climatologically, the first half of October still produces major hurricanes such as Michael (2018) and Opal (1995). Warm sea-surface temperatures and pockets of low shear linger across the western Atlantic, and long-track storms like Jerry often recurve just east of the U.S. coast. However, a weaker Bermuda High or timely cold front can leave the door open for landfall. NOAA’s August outlook called for an above-average 13-18 named storms this season, and Jerry underscores that forecast as the basin sits on the higher end with seven weeks left. Preparedness tips • Verify your hurricane plan and supply kit now; don’t wait for watches to be posted. • Check local emergency management for shelter locations and evacuation zones. • Boat owners in the Bahamas, Florida, and the Carolinas should review mooring options; even a passing storm can generate destructive swells. • Travelers to the Caribbean should monitor airline change policies and travel insurance coverage for weather disruptions. Outlook beyond Jerry The NHC is also monitoring a non-tropical low near 30° N, 57° W with a 50 percent chance of subtropical development in the next 48 hours. If it acquires a warm core, it would become Tropical or Subtropical Storm Kate. Long-range ensemble guidance hints at another tropical wave emerging off Africa early next week, so the Atlantic conveyor belt remains active. Bottom line Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to become Hurricane Jerry within 24 hours, bringing tropical-storm conditions to the northeastern Caribbean and potentially threatening the U.S. East Coast later next week. Stay weather-aware, refresh your hurricane kit, and follow reliable sources such as the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates. Acting early is the best defense in a season that remains far from over. Sources: National Hurricane Center, CBS News, USA Today