Hurricane Season 2025: Expert Forecasts, Likely Storm Paths & Urgent Prep Tips

Atlantic hurricane season 2025 officially opened on June 1, and forecasters say the quiet start is no reason to relax. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a 60 percent chance that this year will be “above normal,” calling for 13 – 19 named storms, 6 – 10 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. KEY DRIVERS OF A BUSY SEASON • Record-warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are providing extra fuel for storm formation. • Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions reduce wind shear, allowing storms to strengthen. • A stronger West African monsoon is expected to send more robust tropical waves across the Atlantic. WHY JUNE’S “ZERO” DOESN’T MEAN SAFETY The basin has yet to produce a named storm as of mid-June, a rare “0-for-June” scenario highlighted by The Weather Channel. Historically, 90 percent of Atlantic hurricanes develop after August 1, so an early lull offers no statistical relief. Rapid-intensification events often erupt with little notice later in the summer, meaning coastal and inland communities must stay prepared. WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT • The statistical peak arrives September 10, but activity typically ramps up in mid-August. • Ocean heat content in the Main Development Region is tracking near 20-year highs, supporting stronger storms. • An upgraded Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System will provide up to 5 percent better track and intensity guidance, extending warning lead times by 72 hours for surge and tropical-storm-force winds. 2025 STORM NAME LIST Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony. PREPAREDNESS CHECKLIST 1. Build a 7-day supply kit: water, shelf-stable food, medications, batteries, and copies of vital documents. 2. Review evacuation zones and routes; shelters may differ from past years. 3. Update insurance policies; most carriers impose binding restrictions once a storm enters the Gulf or Caribbean. 4. Trim trees, secure loose outdoor items, and test generators well before watches are issued. 5. Enable Wireless Emergency Alerts on all smartphones and bookmark hurricanes.gov for official updates. BEYOND THE COAST Inland flooding from 2024’s Helene and Debby caused catastrophic damage hundreds of miles from landfall points. This season, NOAA will add rip-current risk maps and Spanish-language advisories to help more residents understand evolving threats. BOTTOM LINE The absence of early storms should be treated as bonus preparation time, not a forecast bust. Above-average ocean heat and favorable atmospheric conditions set the stage for a potentially active late summer and fall. Use June’s calm to finalize your hurricane plan, safeguard property, and stay informed—because once the Atlantic switches on, lead time shrinks fast.