Houston Weather Alert: Severe Storms, Flash Flood Risk, and Hour-by-Hour Forecast for Today

Houston weather is turning up the heat just in time for the July 4th holiday, with the National Weather Service warning that heat indices could soar past 103 °F across much of the metro area. Forecasters say actual afternoon highs will sit in the mid- to upper-90s, but oppressive humidity will make it feel several degrees hotter, especially during peak daylight hours of 1 p.m.-6 p.m. Isolated thunderstorms remain the one wild card in the forecast. A stubborn ridge of high pressure will dominate through Friday, limiting rain coverage, yet a few sea-breeze cells could pop up late each afternoon. Any storm that develops will deliver a brief but welcome cool-down, along with lightning that could disrupt evening fireworks displays. Holiday timeline • Thursday (July 3): Morning lows near 79 °F, highs around 96 °F; 20 % chance of a late-day storm. • Independence Day: Similar temperatures, heat index 100-105 °F; spotty showers between 3 p.m.-7 p.m. could move inland from the Gulf. • Weekend outlook: Highs hold in the mid-90s with a daily 30 % chance of pop-up showers as the high weakens slightly. Long-range models hint at a more organized disturbance early next week that may bump rain chances to 50 % and send highs down a few degrees—a modest break before triple-digit feels-like readings return later in July. Heat safety reminders • Hydrate: Drink water every hour, even if you don’t feel thirsty. • Time your outdoor plans: Schedule workouts and yardwork before 10 a.m. or after 7 p.m. • Check on vulnerable neighbors and never leave kids or pets in vehicles. • Locate city cooling centers; many open 9 a.m.-6 p.m. during heat advisories. • Monitor air quality: Hazy Saharan dust has occasionally lowered visibility and raised particulate levels this week; sensitive groups should limit prolonged outdoor exertion. Why Houston keeps getting hotter Houston’s 30-year climate normals already show warmer and wetter conditions than a decade ago, and scientists tie the trend to a warming Gulf and sprawling urban development that traps heat overnight. That means higher humidity, hotter nights, and more frequent extreme-heat days—patterns that 2025 is continuing. Stay weather-aware Bookmark trusted local outlets, enable severe-weather alerts on your phone, and have a backup indoor venue for firework watching. With smart planning, you can celebrate America’s birthday while beating Houston’s blistering July heat.