Gas Prices Spike Today: Why Costs Are Rising and 5 Smart Ways to Save at the Pump

U.S. drivers are staring at the most expensive start to summer in years as the national average for regular unleaded hit $4.34 a gallon on May 31, only a nickel shy of last week’s high and 45 cents above Memorial Day 2025. Analysts tie the surge to the spring escalation of the Iran-U.S. conflict, which has choked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a corridor that normally carries about 20 percent of the world’s crude. Brent crude futures have hovered near $102 a barrel since the attacks on energy infrastructure in late February, pushing wholesale gasoline costs up roughly 70 cents and erasing refiners’ winter discounts. Price pressure is spreading beyond the coasts. AAA data show 14 states—led by California’s $5.89 and Nevada’s $5.35 averages—now pay more than $4.75 a gallon. Even traditionally low-cost Texas has crossed $3.80. Midwest retail stations, which normally fall after refinery maintenance, are instead lifting signs ahead of the June 15 driving peak. Supply fears, not demand, are in the driver’s seat. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports domestic gasoline inventories 7 percent below the five-year range, while Gulf Coast refiners are exporting record volumes to Europe to backfill lost Middle East barrels. With hurricane season officially underway, traders warn that any refinery outage along the Gulf could light another fuse under pump prices. Relief looks distant. Energy consultancy GasBuddy projects the national average could “test or top” the June 2022 record of $5.02 if Hormuz remains blocked deep into August, a scenario that would drain roughly 950,000 barrels per day from global supply. JPMorgan’s commodities desk now forecasts $110 Brent by Labor Day, a level that historically adds 25-30 cents per gallon downstream. Consumers are already reacting: Google mobility data show a 6 percent dip in discretionary weekend driving since mid-April, while mass-transit ridership ticked up in Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta. Airlines, however, expect a record 28 million passengers between June 10 and July 4, signalling that travelers are trimming road trips, not vacations. The Biden administration has ruled out an election-year release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after last year’s drawdown left stocks at a four-decade low. Officials instead renewed waivers allowing summer sales of higher-ethanol E15 blends in the Midwest, a move the farm lobby says will shave 5-to-10 cents but which refiners call “symbolic at best.” Wall Street is watching the July 1 OPEC+ meeting for the next catalyst. Should the cartel extend its 1.2 million-barrel voluntary cut, analysts at Citi say gasoline could remain above $4.20 through Thanksgiving. If, however, Gulf producers unwind quotas to recapture lost market share, pump prices might slide toward $3.60 by October—still well above the pre-pandemic norm. For now, the message to motorists is simple: fill up early, use loyalty apps, and brace for a bumpy summer road ahead.