Extreme Weather Incoming: Live Updates on Major Storms Disrupting the Nation

A coast-to-coast November warm-up is underway across the United States, but forecasters warn that a rare, early-season disturbance to the polar vortex could flip the script before Thanksgiving. Here’s what the latest data show—and why your winter coat should still stay near the door. Warmth dominates the early-month outlook • NOAA’s November 2026 temperature outlook gives every state outside the Southwest better-than-even odds of finishing the month above the 1991-2020 average, with the strongest warm signal stretched from the Northern Plains to New England. • Only Arizona, New Mexico and Texas sit in the “equal chances” zone, meaning near-average, cooler or warmer outcomes are all plausible. Storm track favors a wetter Southwest • Thanks to a robust Super El Niño, subtropical moisture is aimed at California and the Four Corners, boosting odds for a rain-soaked November that could further chip away at lingering drought. • Forecasters also tip parts of the Upper Midwest toward a soggy month, while western Alaska and the northern Rockies lean drier than normal. Why the forecast could flip fast Computer models are sniffing out an unusually early Sudden Stratospheric Warming—an atmospheric chain reaction that can weaken or “collapse” the polar vortex. When that happens, frigid Arctic air often tumbles south a few weeks later. NOAA notes that a November SSW is “very rare” but could keep the Arctic Oscillation negative into December, a setup historically linked to cold snaps in the eastern half of the nation. What it means for you 1. Don’t be fooled by the mild start: heating-bill spikes are still possible in early winter if the vortex disruption materializes. 2. Travel planners should monitor late-month forecasts; an SSW often precedes an active storm track capable of high-impact snow or ice. 3. Western water managers could see additional drought relief as El Niño-enhanced storms roll ashore. Bottom line November is kicking off with T-shirt afternoons for millions, but the atmosphere is primed for a dramatic mood swing. Keep an eye on the polar vortex updates—and keep that parka handy.