Dow Jones Stock Market Today: 6-Month High Sparks Bull-Run Hopes

Wall Street started the week on a strong note as the Dow Jones Industrial Average vaulted more than 450 points on Monday, August 4 2025, clawing back much of Friday’s tariff- and jobs-driven sell-off. By mid-afternoon the blue-chip index was up about 1.1%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 1.6% gain. Investors rushed back into equities after a cooler-than-expected July payrolls report fanned fresh hopes that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. Fed-funds futures now imply roughly a 70% probability of a quarter-point cut at the central bank’s September meeting, according to CME Group data cited in several trading desks’ morning notes. The rebound was broad-based. Rate-sensitive groups such as utilities and real-estate investment trusts rallied alongside high-beta names in technology and consumer discretionary. Tesla jumped nearly 4% after Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating, pointing to resilient demand for the Model Y and Cybertruck preorders. Meanwhile, chipmakers extended last week’s upswing on renewed enthusiasm for artificial-intelligence hardware orders. Geopolitical headlines also helped sentiment. Over the weekend the U.S. Trade Representative hinted that new tariffs on select Chinese goods could be delayed until year-end, giving multinationals more breathing room to adjust supply chains. Shares of industrial stalwarts Caterpillar and 3M—which both generate double-digit revenue exposure to China—advanced more than 2%. Even beaten-down “meme stocks” saw relief. Entertainment chain AMC surged 15% intraday after a popular online post claimed the company’s mid-summer box-office haul was its best in three years. While analysts warned that retail-driven spikes may be fleeting, the move underscored the day’s risk-on tone. Key levels to watch: technicians flagged 35,750 on the Dow as the next upside hurdle; a close above that area would mark the index’s highest settlement since early April. For the S&P 500, reclaiming 5,060 could solidify the benchmark’s breakout from a two-week consolidation pattern. Still, market strategists cautioned against complacency. “One soft payroll print doesn’t erase broader concerns about sticky services inflation,” said Lindsey Baker, chief economist at Horizon Macro. The consumer-price index for July, due Wednesday, is expected to show core inflation running at a 3.6% annual rate—well above the Fed’s 2% target—and any upside surprise could swiftly revive rate-hike bets. In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped six basis points to 3.91%, its lowest since mid-June, reflecting the equity market’s dovish read of economic data. The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.3%, providing an extra tailwind for multinational earnings estimates. Looking ahead, traders will parse a heavy slate of corporate earnings, with Disney, Eli Lilly and Uber reporting this week. Volatility could also spike on Thursday when July PPI data and the latest weekly jobless claims cross the tape. Bottom line: Monday’s rally shows investors eager to buy any hint of policy relief, but staying power hinges on incoming inflation numbers and the Fed’s messaging at the Jackson Hole symposium later this month. For now, bulls have regained control of the Dow Jones and broader stock market, but the next data drop could quickly redefine the narrative.