College Football Playoff Shake-Up: 5 Scenarios That Propel Ohio State Into the Final Four

Ohio State’s first stumble of the season – a 13-10 defeat to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship – has complicated but not crushed the Buckeyes’ College Football Playoff ambitions. Despite surrendering the conference crown, Ryan Day’s squad closed the regular season 12-1 with résumé-building wins over Texas and Michigan, and the CFP selection committee has repeatedly praised the roster’s “talent and consistent dominance.” Current projections keep OSU slotted at No. 2, positioned for a coveted quarterfinal bye behind undefeated Indiana. Why the Buckeyes remain safe • Quality loss: Falling to the nation’s new No. 1 is the definition of a “good” defeat in the committee’s eyes. • Top-25 victories: Wins over Texas and Michigan outshine comparable contenders Oregon and Georgia in that category. • Efficiency metrics: ESPN’s SP+ and FPI still rank Ohio State top-three nationally on both sides of the ball, reinforcing the analytic argument for a high seed. What could still go wrong Georgia’s emphatic SEC title win over Alabama and Texas Tech’s Big 12 romp give the committee ammunition to reshuffle seeds 2-4. If strength-of-schedule nit-picking intensifies, Ohio State could slide to No. 3, forfeiting its bye but remaining firmly in the 12-team bracket. The bigger threat would be an unexpected elevation of Oregon – whose only blemish is also to Indiana – although most models keep the Ducks on the five-line hosting a first-round game. Injury watch Quarterback Julian Sayin exited late in the fourth quarter Saturday after a hit to the ribs; team sources said X-rays were negative, and the Heisman front-runner is “day-to-day.” Star receiver Carnell Tate (ankle) is expected to be full-go by bowl prep, giving the Buckeyes their full complement of playmakers for the playoff opener. Selection-day timeline • Sunday, Noon ET (ESPN) – Final CFP Top 25 unveiled • If OSU lands No. 2 or No. 3 – Buckeyes bypass the 19-20 Dec. campus round and head straight to a New Year’s Six quarterfinal • If OSU shockingly free-falls to No. 5 – Ohio Stadium would host the program’s first‐ever playoff home game, likely versus Sun Belt champ James Madison. Fan forecast Tickets for a potential Columbus first-round game are already trading above $600 on secondary markets, but most Buckeye backers still expect a bye. Local sentiment remains upbeat; as linebacker C.J. Hicks noted postgame, “We control our response now, and nobody’s playing us out of the playoff.” Bottom line Ohio State’s path to a third straight national title remains intact. A single loss removed the margin for error, yet the committee’s criteria – strength of record, “game control” and star-power – continue to tilt scarlet and gray. Buckeye Nation should keep an eye on Sunday’s reveal, but the odds overwhelmingly favor OSU opening its playoff journey from either the No. 2 or No. 3 line, still just two wins away from another trip to Houston for the semifinal round.