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China’s pivotal November data releases and headline events offer a mixed snapshot of the world’s second-largest economy—one that global investors, exporters and policy-makers will watch closely as 2026 approaches.
Singles’ Day: record GMV, slower growth
Preliminary tallies from major e-commerce platforms show that Singles’ Day, China’s annual online shopping extravaganza, notched another record in gross merchandise value. Yet year-on-year growth was only in the low single digits, underscoring continued consumer caution despite deeper discounts and a two-week pre-sale period. Retailers relied heavily on livestream-commerce and “buy-now-pay-later” incentives, reflecting Beijing’s push to shore up domestic demand after months of soft inflation data.
Tariff relief hints at a thaw in trade tensions
Washington’s decision to suspend a scheduled hike in reciprocal duties on roughly US$18 billion worth of Chinese imports for one year removes an immediate headwind for manufacturers on both sides of the Pacific. Chinese exporters of consumer electronics and machinery stand to benefit most, while U.S. importers gain breathing room amid still-sticky logistics costs. Analysts caution, however, that the reprieve is temporary and contingent on progress in broader negotiations covering intellectual-property protections and market access.
Carbon emissions plateau as renewables surge
In a rare piece of positive climate news, new analysis indicates China’s CO₂ output has been flat—or even trending lower—for the past 18 months, thanks to a record 240 GW of solar additions and 61 GW of new wind capacity in the first three quarters of 2025. The build-out supports Beijing’s pledge to peak emissions before 2030 and positions Chinese suppliers to dominate global clean-energy supply chains, from polysilicon wafers to grid-scale batteries.
Infrastructure under scrutiny after bridge incident
Safety concerns resurfaced this week when a section of the newly opened Hongqi Bridge partially collapsed in Guangdong province. While no fatalities were reported, engineers cited design flaws and rushed construction schedules as probable causes, prompting nationwide inspections of recent public-works projects.
What to watch next
1. November credit-growth figures due mid-month will reveal whether targeted monetary easing is feeding through to small-business lending.
2. Industrial-production data on December 15 will gauge the strength of export-oriented manufacturing after the tariff pause.
3. COP31 negotiations could spotlight China’s new national emissions-trading rules, expected to expand beyond the power sector.
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