Poll Shockwaves: California Governor Race Upended as New Survey Reveals Surging Underdog

Early-primary vote tallies show a dramatic shake-up in California’s 2026 gubernatorial contest, with former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra surging to first place at 27.2 percent, edging Fox News commentator Steve Hilton at 25.9 percent and billionaire climate investor Tom Steyer at 21.5 percent, with 72 percent of ballots counted so far. Under the state’s top-two primary rules, the two highest-scoring contenders—regardless of party—advance to the November 3 general election, setting up a likely Becerra-Hilton showdown unless late mail votes propel Steyer past the conservative firebrand. Why Becerra’s comeback matters Just months ago Becerra polled in single digits, overshadowed by Steyer’s $200 million ad blitz and Hilton’s MAGA-backed media platform. A late coalition of Latino, labor and healthcare advocates, coupled with high-profile endorsements from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s allies, helped the Los Angeles native sprint from 3 percent to the top of the field, a reversal he called a “Hollywood ending” at an election-night rally. If victorious in November, Becerra would become California’s first Latino governor in more than 150 years—an historic milestone in a state where Latinos now make up 40 percent of the population. Hilton rides conservative wave Hilton, a former U.K. political strategist turned California talk-show host, capitalized on frustration over homelessness, crime and the cost of living to consolidate GOP voters statewide. Backed by former President Donald Trump, Hilton declared himself the change agent who can “end Sacramento socialism,” though Trump’s premature claim of primary victory and allegations of fraud prompted the U.S. Justice Department to dispatch federal observers to Los Angeles County’s vote-counting center. Steyer’s wild card Steyer’s third-place standing keeps hope alive for progressives who want to see a climate-first agenda dominate the fall campaign. His campaign is banking on late-arriving urban ballots, which historically tilt left, to reclaim second place. But consultants note that Steyer’s path narrows each hour Becerra’s margin grows. Key issues shaping November 1. Housing affordability: Median home prices have topped $900,000, turning the housing crunch into the race’s defining economic issue. 2. Homelessness: With more than 180,000 unhoused residents statewide, voters are demanding a concrete plan beyond emergency shelters. 3. Climate resilience: Record-breaking wildfires and drought keep environmental policy at center stage—an area where Steyer and Becerra agree on carbon neutrality but differ on oil-and-gas permitting. 4. Public safety: Hilton pledges to “restore order” by rolling back parts of Proposition 47 and expanding police budgets, while Becerra supports targeted gun-violence prevention grants and addiction services. What to watch next • Remaining 2.6 million ballots: Updates from populous counties like Los Angeles, San Diego and Alameda could still shuffle the leaderboard. • Fund-raising sprint: Steyer’s personal fortune and Hilton’s national conservative donor network ensure a nine-figure advertising war, but Becerra’s union money narrows the gap. • Debate calendar: The non-partisan state commission plans three televised debates—expect sharp clashes over abortion, border policy and Newsom’s ambitious climate targets. SEO takeaway California governor race 2026, Xavier Becerra lead, Steve Hilton challenge, Tom Steyer third, top-two primary results, November general election, housing crisis, homelessness, climate change, public safety—these are the keywords driving search interest as the nation’s most populous state decides who will replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom.