Buffalo Weather Alert: Heavy Lake-Effect Snow and Freezing Temps—What to Expect This Week

Residents and visitors waking up in Buffalo this Monday can expect one more taste of late-season warmth before autumn truly settles in. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s—about 10 °F above the early-October average—under abundant sunshine and a light east breeze. But the pattern flips quickly. A sharp Canadian front arrives Tuesday afternoon, knocking temperatures down into the mid-60s and opening the door to a much cooler stretch by mid-week. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday are projected to stall in the mid-50s, with nighttime lows sliding into the low 40s—prime conditions for the season’s first widespread frost in the inland suburbs. Lake Erie remains a relatively warm 66 °F, so the clash between cold air aloft and lingering lake heat will prime the atmosphere for scattered lake-effect rain showers Wednesday night into Thursday. While significant snow is not yet in the cards, brief graupel or small hail could mix in over higher terrain south of the city during the chilliest overnight hours. Looking ahead, a moderation trend returns next weekend as southwest flow bumps highs back to the mid-60s. Early signals hint at another strong front around October 14-15 that could deliver Buffalo’s first lake-effect snowflakes if Lake Erie water temperatures cool into the upper 50s. What to watch this week • Temperature tumble: Expect a 25-degree swing from today’s high to Wednesday night’s low. • Lake-effect setup: Wednesday night–Thursday morning drizzle could turn locally heavy east of the lake. • First frost potential: Protect late-season gardens Tuesday night in southern Erie and Wyoming Counties. Travel & event impacts • Morning commutes remain dry through mid-week, but plan for wet roads and reduced visibility on I-90 near Hamburg and the 219 corridor late Wednesday. • The Bills’ home game next Sunday currently looks dry with kickoff temps near 63 °F—light jacket weather. Bottom line: Enjoy today’s sunshine, but have layers ready. Buffalo’s trademark weather whiplash is back, and the first hints of winter may only be a front or two away.