Brandon Johnson Shakes Up Chicago: New Crime, Tax, and Housing Moves You Need to Know

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is facing an inflection point midway through his first term, as new polling shows a steep slide in public support while a wave of budget and public-safety decisions test his progressive platform. A University of Chicago NORC survey released this week puts Johnson’s job-approval rating at just 26 percent, with more than half of respondents saying the city is moving in the wrong direction. A parallel poll from ABC7 Chicago and the Mansueto Institute echoes those numbers and highlights particular frustration on taxes and the pace of crime reduction. The low marks arrive as Johnson rolls out an ambitious revenue package aimed at closing a projected $538 million budget gap. His plan revives proposals for a city-owned bank, a real-estate transfer tax on high-end property deals, and a head tax on large employers—ideas derided as “unpopular” by business groups and dubbed politically risky by local analysts. Johnson argues the measures will “make the wealthy pay their fair share,” but Springfield allies have been slow to embrace new levies, raising doubts about whether the package can pass before the fall veto session. Even as fiscal debates intensify, the mayor is touting what he calls “tangible progress” on public safety. Chicago has logged a double-digit decline in homicides and carjackings compared with the same period last year, according to city data presented at an August 11 news conference. Johnson credits his investments in violence-intervention teams and summer-youth jobs, though police-union leaders point to expanded patrol overtime as the key driver. The mixed messaging has left residents divided: 41 percent of poll respondents say they feel safer than a year ago, while 48 percent say conditions are unchanged or worse. Johnson has also used the national spotlight to sharpen his progressive credentials. In a Democracy Now! interview Friday, he blasted former President Donald Trump’s “authoritarian” rhetoric on urban crime and warned the GOP front-runner to “stay out of Chicago politics.” The comments quickly trended on social media, energizing Johnson’s base but fueling criticism from moderates who view the exchange as a distraction from city hall priorities. Behind the headlines, the mayor continues to nurture neighborhood-level projects that formed the backbone of his 2023 campaign. On August 14 he announced $20 million in Neighborhood Opportunity Fund grants for 14 South and West Side business corridors, money earmarked for storefront rehabs, grocery co-ops, and child-care centers. Community-development advocates applaud the investment, yet fiscal watchdogs note that the program is financed largely by downtown zoning fees that may shrink if a commercial real-estate slowdown persists. What’s next? Johnson has ordered department chiefs to deliver a preliminary 2026 spending outline by September 15, incorporating potential revenue from the contested tax proposals while sketching $200 million in “contingency cuts” should Springfield balk. City Council sources say negotiations over the final budget could define Johnson’s standing with alderpersons who have so far supported his social-services expansion but remain wary of taxing job creators. Political strategists, meanwhile, warn that cratering approval numbers may invite an early flurry of challengers for the 2027 election. Former CPS CEO Paul Vallas, who lost to Johnson by five points in the 2023 runoff, has already stepped up fundraising emails that brand the mayor’s agenda a “war on the working class.” Progressive activists counter that establishment critics are exaggerating fiscal woes to derail systemic reforms. For Johnson, the path forward likely hinges on demonstrating quick wins before winter: securing partial passage of his revenue plan, locking in additional federal grants for migrant-shelter costs, and sustaining lower violent-crime totals through the traditionally tougher fall months. Success could stabilize public opinion and give his administration breathing room to advance signature initiatives such as universal childcare and a citywide Green New Deal. Failure, however, would reinforce the narrative of a progressive mayor out of sync with a restless electorate. With budget hearings weeks away and crime figures under hourly scrutiny, Chicago’s 57th mayor is entering the defining chapter of his tenure—one that could determine whether Brandon Johnson’s progressive experiment becomes a national model or a cautionary tale for cities in search of fiscal and social equilibrium.