Bills vs Falcons Prediction & Betting Guide: Latest Odds, Key Matchups, and Expert Pick for Sunday’s Clash

Kickoff Details Buffalo heads south to face the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football, Oct. 13, 2025. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with ESPN and ESPN2’s ManningCast providing the national broadcast. Latest Odds & Line Movement • Spread: Bills –3.5 • Total: 50 points • Moneyline: Bills –175, Falcons +150 The line opened Bills –4.5 on Sunday night but briefly dipped to –3 before settling at –3.5 as of Monday morning, driven largely by sharp money backing Atlanta’s improving pass rush. Buffalo remains a short road favorite thanks to Josh Allen’s dual-threat upside and a defense ranked top-five in DVOA entering Week 6. CBS Sports and BetMGM consensus numbers show no major injury-related swings as of publication. Key Storylines 1. Allen vs. Atlanta’s young secondary – Rookie CB Jaheim Robbins has flashed but now gets Stefon Diggs on the road. 2. Bijan Robinson’s workload – The second-year star averages 5.4 ypc; Buffalo’s run D just allowed 146 yards to New England. 3. Arthur Smith’s red-zone woes – Falcons rank 28th in TD rate inside the 20; Bills’ defense is third in red-zone stops. 4. Bills’ short week psyche – Buffalo travels after an emotional SNF loss; Sean McDermott is 7-2 ATS after a loss since 2023. Matchup Breakdown • Bills offense vs. Falcons defense: Buffalo’s 11-personnel spacing stresses Atlanta’s Cover-3 looks; expect designed Allen keepers to counter DC Ryan Nielsen’s 4-man pressure. Falcons have generated pressure on 31 % of drop-backs but sit 26th in sack-to-pressure conversion. • Falcons offense vs. Bills defense: Desmond Ridder is at 6.8 air yards/attempt—lowest among starters—while Buffalo blitzes 21 % of the time, disguising nickel pressures behind hybrid safety Kyle Dugger. Atlanta must lean on Robinson and outside-zone to slow the Bills’ interior penetration. Injury Report (as of Monday afternoon) Bills – LT Dion Dawkins (ankle, questionable); CB Christian Benford (hamstring, doubtful). Falcons – RG Chris Lindstrom (toe, questionable); WR Drake London (knee, probable). Betting Trends • Buffalo is 12-5 ATS as a road favorite since 2022. • Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games when listed as a home underdog of three or more. • The Over is 8-3 in Falcons’ night games under Arthur Smith, fueled by late defensive lapses. Prediction & Best Bet Final Score: Bills 27, Falcons 23 Buffalo’s explosive pass game plus Allen’s red-zone scrambling tilt a tight contest. Lay the short number at –3.5 only if you can buy down to –3; otherwise, target Over 50 given both clubs’ top-10 pace and red-zone efficiency volatility. Prop sprinkle: Bijan Robinson Over 76.5 rushing yards—Bills linebackers have surrendered 5.1 ypc to RBs the past four weeks. How to Watch & Streaming TV: ESPN/ESPN2 Stream: ESPN+, NFL+, fuboTV, Sling Orange. Radio: Westwood One national call; local feeds WGR 550 Buffalo, 92.9 The Game Atlanta. Quick FAQ Q: Who is favored to win Bills vs. Falcons? A: The Bills are a 3.5-point road favorite with a moneyline around –175. Q: What is the over/under? A: Consensus total sits at 50 points. Q: Where is the game? A: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia.