Bill Ackman Predicts Market Shake-Up: What His Latest Billion-Dollar Bet Means for Investors

Pershing Square’s 2025 Hot Streak: How Bill Ackman Outpaced the Market Pershing Square Holdings, the $18 billion hedge fund steered by billionaire Bill Ackman, has surged roughly 25 percent year-to-date, handily beating the S&P 500 and most peers. The performance puts Ackman among the top hedge-fund performers of 2025 and underscores a comeback narrative after several muted years. Analysts credit concentrated positions, limited portfolio turnover, and a timely call on housing-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the fund’s rally. Fannie-Freddie Thesis Finally Clicks Ackman first bought preferred shares of Fannie and Freddie in 2013, betting that the government-controlled mortgage insurers would eventually be released from conservatorship. A dozen years later that thesis is gaining traction. Both companies have accelerated plans to raise capital ahead of a potential share sale, and the Biden administration signaled openness to ending their conservatorship. Shares of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) have soared more than 80 percent in 2025 alone, providing a double-digit contribution to Pershing Square’s overall return. Ackman amplified the momentum by reiterating on social platform X that the “administration wants Fannie and Freddie shares to go higher” ahead of an equity raise, fanning fresh retail interest in the trade. A Quiet Yet Bold Billion-Dollar Bet on Amazon While Fannie and Freddie grab headlines, Ackman quietly built a new $1.2 billion position in Amazon during the second quarter, acquiring roughly 5.8 million shares, filings show. The e-commerce and cloud titan is now Pershing Square’s sole new holding this year, complementing long-time core stakes in Chipotle, Restaurant Brands, Hilton, and Alphabet. Ackman’s Amazon thesis centers on expanding AWS margins and the accelerating roll-out of generative-AI services, which he believes Wall Street is still undervaluing. According to Nasdaq analysis, Amazon is actually only his fund’s second-largest holding; the top slot remains with Chipotle, underscoring Pershing Square’s consumer-focused DNA. Recognition Abroad: “Bullish on Israel’s Future” Beyond the trading floor, Ackman made philanthropic headlines this week after receiving an honorary doctorate from the University of Haifa. During the ceremony he declared himself “bullish on Israel,” highlighting the country’s tech ecosystem and resilience. The trip reflects Ackman’s growing profile in Middle-East philanthropy; he previously endowed cybersecurity scholarships at the same institution. Weighing In on NYC Politics Never shy about politics, the billionaire also sounded alarms over “out-of-state cash flooding” the New York City mayoral race, calling attention to large California donations backing progressive candidate Zohran Mamdani. Ackman warned the influx could distort local priorities and urged greater transparency in campaign finance. His comments sparked debate among policy watchers and highlighted the hedge-fund manager’s willingness to use his platform for civic issues. What’s Next for Pershing Square Investors? • IPO Watch: Rumors persist that Ackman may attempt a New York listing of Pershing Square Holdings to widen the shareholder base and secure a higher multiple. • SPARC Revival: The SEC is expected to decide soon on Ackman’s revised SPARC (special purpose acquisition rights company) structure, potentially giving him a fresh M&A vehicle. • Housing Playbook: With housing affordability emerging as a 2026 election theme, Ackman’s Fannie-Freddie wager could turn from contrarian to consensus, driving further upside—or regulatory pushback. Bottom Line Bill Ackman’s concentrated, high-conviction strategy is back in vogue. A soaring bet on Fannie and Freddie, a stealth move into Amazon, and a high-profile philanthropic tour have kept him firmly in the spotlight. For investors tracking hedge-fund titans—or simply searching for the latest twists in one of Wall Street’s most watched portfolios—Ackman’s 2025 playbook offers both lessons in patience and a reminder that big swings can still pay off.